The German-based research group Oil World claimed today an even higher forecasted world production of major oilseeds (by over 4%) based on the outlook of increased soybean estimates here in the US and in Brazil. The consensus was 3.7% in a previous estimate, but is now revised upward to 4.3% with soybean futures responding with new lows today.
Amid such production estimates, soybean futures have lost nearly 30% since this time last year and has been amongst the worst performing commodity markets. The United States is the biggest grower of soybeans, and is the nation’s biggest cash crop.
“The futures price for soybeans could fall to the 920 level with the ideal weather promising a bumper crop. The bounce may come if there is some early frost expected around the bend otherwise 920 will be seen before you see 1000 again,” said Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current soybean futures situation.
Soybean futures trend is clearly down and we are short this market since last week. We are about .40c away from the soybean futures target and there is no news in the foreseeable future that can rally this market before harvest is completed (in my view).
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