Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Lean Hogs, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Wheat Futures Breaks Out to 3-Week High on Black Sea Region Concerns

Wheat futures continue to grind higher with higher highs and higher lows since basing from late last month. Wheat futures have risen to a three-week high on the outlook of supplies from the Black Sea area could be compromised with tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine. The Commercial Traders Index monitored each week illustrates wheat futures speculators cutting away from short positions for the last three weeks. According to the USDA, the Black Sea region accounts for 21% of all global wheat exports. “Fears of additional Russian and Ukraine fighting going into the long weekend gave the wheat market a boost. Look for continued (wheat futures) volatility with conflicting reports coming out of the Black Sea region,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation. Wheat futures trend is technically “down” at this time, but as I mentioned in the opening comments there is a very strong base where it appears there has been a “turn-over” from short, to long, speculating. I need a clearer picture to unfold, but I am looking forward to the change in trend upward when it comes! ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Shortages to Ensure Recovery in Prices Still Not Enough for Sugar Futures

Sugar futures is in a unique situation with “price discovery” with supply and demand, according to the Int’l Sugar Org. They are of the opinion that before sugar prices can recover significantly, global sugar consumption needs to be more than three to four times what the projected supply will be. The senior economist for the I.S.O. claims the global market should have a surplus of only 1.3M tons starting in October and a small deficit the following year. In October, it will start the fifth-year of a world-wide sugar glut. “Sugar supplies are so high that for sugar prices to recover in any significant way we will need close to a 3-4 million ton deficit in consumption versus supply,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current sugar futures situation. The technical trend for sugar futures remains down with no bottom yet in sight. This has become a tricky market in the fact that in can be weeks before sugar futures retraces enough to “sell the rallies.” ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Coffee Production in Brazil Set for Longest Decline in Almost 50 Years

Coffee futures are once again poised for more upside action as prolonged drought in Brazil is claiming much of that nation’s coffee crop. Coffee farmers are preparing for the worst as Brazil heads for its first three-year production decline since 1965. Production from the world’s top-grower of the Arabica Coffee variety is expected to drop as much as 18% (from last year at this time) when the harvest ends next month – this coming from a 3.1% decline only last year according to Brazil’s National Coffee Council’s estimates. The Council also estimates coffee farmers collecting less of a harvest next year which would be the longest slump since the mid-’60’s. Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current coffee futures situation by stating, “It appears as if the only way out of the coffee situation in Brazil is a miracle of much needed rain.” The trend for coffee futures has resumed up since late last month. The initial margin requirement for coffee futures is $5,700 per contract so I must choose the trades wisely. I have coffee futures higher (in my work & studies) into the end of the week. With coffee futures up 940 points today, our target is about 700 points higher. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  None this week. DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, Lean Hogs, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Crude Oil, Euro-currency, Soy Oil and Japanese Yen (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...