Soybean Futures Break Even as Brazil Exports Soar Despite Crop Shortfalls

Soybean futures appear to be selling-off today despite crop shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere where crushing plants in Brazil are reportedly cutting back and exports said to be high. Soybean futures are down .16 cents today currently trading at $10.00 even per bushel for November delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade. According to a University of Sao Paulo economic think-tank, despite soybean crop shortfalls Brazil’s soybean exports this year have surpassed those from last year at this time to a record 44.35M metric tons. Soybean meal compared to this same time last year have reportedly risen 8.7%, they also claim. “Part of the reason for reduced crush demand in Brazil is is said to be due to eroding demand from their poultry industry,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Craney added, “Reports of Cargill and another prominent soybean crusher stopped the processing of soybeans reportedly due to lack of demand.” Soybean futures trend had been technically “down” until today’s trading session. When and if soybean futures take out today’s high before any sustained trading below $9.84 over the next week occur, this may change the course of the trend to up. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

China’s High Demand Commodity Said to be Feeding Half the World’s Pigs: Soymeal Futures

Soymeal futures are up today amid continued buying of the soy-based byproduct in order to feed their pig-population – which happens to reportedly be about 50% of the world’s pork population. Soymeal futures are currently “up” $1.4 per ton today currently trading at $410 per ton at the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal prices in China are said to be up 40% with the volume of soymeal contracts continuing to expand with the animal feed trading in more hands there in a single day than the US consumes in an entire year – completely dominating the Chicago Board of Trade! Also contributing to the demand in soymeal is the fact that dry-weather and flooding in the Southern Hemisphere continue to threaten global supplies of soybeans which are crushed to produce both soybean oil and soymeal used to feed livestock animals. Monica Tu, a Shanghai-based analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., who specializes in the soy market, shared her fundamental view of the soymeal futures market by stating, “Downstream users and traders in China have previously kept low stockpiles of soymeal on the expectation of weak demand and prices.” Tu adds, “In recent months, they had to amend their views and restore inventories, supporting solid gains in futures.” The trend for soymeal futures is up, however, with a short-term top in sight. There has not been any type of significant pull-back in this market and we are due for one, but I would expect continued strength in soymeal futures into summer. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK...

Soymeal Futures Reach New Contract Highs as Domestic Supplies Tighten

Soymeal futures reached their highest prices in over a year and a half due to the outlook for Argentina’s supply (the world’s biggest soymeal exporter) and tightening supplies here in the US. Today soymeal futures extended their gains to nearly $420 per ton and are currently up $5 for the day trading at $412.20 at the Chicago Board of Trade. Aside from Argentina’s soybean disruption, soymeal production here in the US is reportedly being disrupted due to at least two processing plants temporarily closed for seasonal maintenance. Soymeal is a preferred high-protein animal feed used for livestock all over the world. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the soymeal futures market by stating, “There is both a Northern & Southern Hemisphere source for soybean bi-products, but with reported wide-spread flooding damaging the soybean crop in Argentina, the global supplies for soybean usage is threatened.” Bourbeau adds, “A lesser soybean harvest simply threatens meeting global demands for the products it produces.” Soymeal futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I am seeing in my studies of soybean and soymeal futures the market is leaving little room for complacency when deciding when to “get in” these futures markets. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Soybean Futures Initially Rise With Soy Oil Demand

Soybean futures initially rallied for a third straight trading session with the strength of soybean oil demand, but both markets have since retreated and are just below unchanged as of this writing. Soybeans reached a price of $9.90 per bushel earlier in the trading session when soybean oil futures extended their three-day gain at the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean futures is considered the “parent” contract of both its by-products – soybean oil, made from pressed soybeans, and soymeal, the left-overs once the oil is removed used for livestock feed. The rally and demand of soybean oil was up as much as 6% twice this week. “Soybean oil (futures) can very well be leading the pack with talk of strong overseas demand,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, regarding the fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Brady added, “It’s natural for soybean prices itself to rise with the demand of the actual by-product.” Soybean futures have rolled over to a technical uptrend only last week with lack of follow-through. We can expect more range-bound until July Soybean futures can break through resistance at $9.95, or support at $9.60 per bushel. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Argentine Exports Expected to Rise by Farmer Sales Seen Slowing Soybean Meal Futures

Soybean meal futures may be preparing to decline as news from Argentina suggests processors there are stepping up their exports. Soybean meal futures have experienced a big boost last month, enough to get the attention of grain processors in the world’s biggest exporter of soymeal. Argentina is expected to ship between 1.2-1.3M metric tons of soymeal during this first-half of November, and total soymeal exports for this month is anticipated to be nearly one-million tons more than this same time last year at this current rate (if it can be kept up). Soybean meal futures blasted-off out of nowhere last month due to delayed domestic shipping, and this delay effectively shifted importers demands to South American suppliers – thus, the decision to “step-up” processing. Soybean meal futures trend is up, however, I see possible “topping” action in this range between $410 – $370 per ton. This bounce in soybean meal futures today is the reaction to yesterday’s sell-off after the monthly USDA crop production report was released. I am proceeding with caution. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Livestock & Poultry Spark Biggest Soybean Meal Feed-Price Rally Since 1974

Soybean meal futures are seeing it’s biggest monthly gains in four decades as livestock & poultry feed made from soybeans is soaring due to rail-trains not being able to get feed to the animals fast enough. Soybean meal futures are down over $15 per ton currently trading at $381 in Chicago (as of this writing). The “Association of American Railroads” date show weekly speed-train (deliveries) fell last week to the slowest rates since Spring of 2010 – while terminal waiting delays rose to its highest level since July. Soybean meal futures have spiked 31% this month alone with meat prices hovering near record highs spurring the current soy-feed demand against current shipping delays from processing plants in the Midwest. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current soybean meal futures situation by stating today, “(Soybean meal futures) surged higher this week due in large part to farmers holding back supplies rather than selling them at recent low prices. Livestock farmers account for the large demand for soymeal as they are sitting on large herds, and are trying to deal with the tight supply situation and delivery difficulties due to problems with transportation of the product.” Soybean meal futures are clearly up with no top yet in sight. I exited our soybean meal futures position prematurely when it appeared a pull-back was in order. I am looking for a way back in… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL....