Supply Outlook Counters US Weather; Wheat Futures

Wheat futures continue to extend their gains on the outlook of improved growing conditions from Europe to Australia won’t be enough to compensate for deteriorating crops in the US. The United States continues to be the world’s biggest exporter of wheat.   Wheat futures have gained 18% this year despite the USDA’s estimate for the Northern Hemisphere harvest to rise by 5.7% this year – the first increase in four years. Other analysts feel rising supplies in most wheat exporting nations, and reduced shipping delays in Canada after their bumper crop, may be enough to cap the current rally. Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current wheat futures situation, “Although wheat (futures) have been strong last few months we might see a break lower if the weather didn’t damage the crop as much as we feared. We might see a break soon in the wheat (futures) because we might be overdone to the upside.” The trend for wheat futures has technically rolled into an up-trend with today’s action. I am leery of being long wheat futures this time of year, and may consider trading both sides of this market. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Corn Futures Climb to Recent Highs as Planting Lags

Corn futures are making a run to recent highs and up for a third-day in a row. This run-up in prices is set to be the biggest monthly corn futures gain in prices since 2010 after the USDA said current corn plantings are trailing the five-year average.   The USDA claims about 19% of our domestic corn crop was planted (as of April 27) compared to only 6% a week earlier. The current five-year average should put plantings closer to 28%, but this lag behind the average is a reason why a “risk premium” has been built into current corn prices (since March). Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, had this to say regarding the current corn futures situation, “We are still below the 5-year average and with more rain on the way we could see plantings continue to lag. If poor weather continues to further delay corn plantings we could see farmers switching from some unplanted corn acres to soybean.” Corn futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. If corn futures can manage to close with two consecutive higher closes above 524^2 (the April 9th high), I think we could be off to the races. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets: Crude Oil, Cotton, Coffee, Natural Gas, British Pound, Corn, Soymeal & Wheat DOWN Trending Futures Markets: (None this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Sugar Futures Rally on Brazil Sugar Output Seen Cut by Drought

After South American sugar crops were damaged by drought, it appears the sugar output in the world’s largest producing region in Brazil will decline just over 5% this season. Sugar futures have rallied over two-thirds of one-cent since Monday morning.   According to a prominent meteorologist down there, the area that produces the most sugar and ethanol was hit with the driest & hottest summer in seven decades. Sugar mills are expected two lose almost two million metric tons of sugar production because of this. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current sugar futures situation, “Sugar futures are slated to rise due to drought conditions in Brazil. Sao Paulo is experiencing the worst drought in decades. Sugar mills are already seeing a 5.2% decline from last season, in the amount of sugar processed.” Levy added, “The hope is that larger harvesting area will offset most of the drought difficulties.” The technical trend for sugar is actually down right now, despite this current rally happening. With a clearer picture for sugar futures unfolding, if the rallying continues we could see a resumption of the overall uptrend on the weekly charts. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Forecast of EU Imports to Rise is Bullish for Soybean Futures

A prominent soybean industry researcher predicts European Union imports will climb to levels not seen since the 2008 time frame. Industry group “Oil World” makes this prediction based upon the increased crushing of the oil seed for the soy bi-products.   The EU is on track to import almost 14M metric tons of soybeans through August – a little more than one-half ton imported a year earlier. Oil World sees the crossings rise by a little more than one-quarter ton in this time frame. Oil World went on to say that earlier this year there had been lower than expected soybean meal imports from South America. At the same time, the “reserved selling of rapeseed there in Europe kept prices of the competing oilseed high.” Soybean futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. We were stopped out just yesterday one day after soybean futures made new contract highs late last week. Looking for another opportunity to get long this market. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...