Schad Commodity’s Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Cotton and S&P 500 Index DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, Coffee and Kansas Wheat ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Crude Oil Futures Remove All February Gains

Crude Oil futures erased all gains made this past month earlier today and was within $4 of last month’s multi-year low. April delivery crude oil futures settled today at $48.92 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange from their lows of $47.80 earlier in Thursday’s trading session. We were cautioned by analysts to brace ourselves for a bounce back up to the $70 per barrel range, but all three attempts to follow-through above $55 fell short. It is probably because all eyes might have been on yesterday’s “Energy Information Administration’s” weekly report stating US crude oil inventories increased by 8.4 million barrels last week – when only a 4M increase was expected. “I understand a crude oil storage facility in Oklahoma reported storage at its highest capacity in over a year,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current crude oil futures situation. Medina added, “Couple the glut of supply with a strong dollar and this month’s crude oil activity may be suggesting the overall move lower is far from over.” The trend for crude oil futures is technically “down,” but at a crossroads. If crude oil futures were to break out above the $55 highs of this month, it’s first target should be $59, then $65 per barrel. However, a break below last month’s low could send crude oil futures to the low $30’s – if not lower. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN...

Strike by Brazil’s Truckers Affecting Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have back-tracked just as much as they shot-up in price yesterday based on what is transpiring a continent away.  Soybean futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade is currently down .115 cents at $10.0725 per bushel (as of this writing) after closing up above $10.18 only yesterday. Apparently concerns regarding disruptions to supplies from Brazil had reportedly boosted prices as a strike from truckers there protesting high fuel prices has continued for a week.  More recently the Brazilian government has imposed a fine on these truckers for blocking the road and holding-up grain exports at their nation’s second-largest exporting city. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating, “If Brazil wasn’t a major soybean exporter that competes with US supplies it wouldn’t be much of a story.”  Craney added, “The demand for soybeans still exists so even when supplies ‘anywhere’ are threatened just goes to show how (grain) prices may spike.” Soybean futures trend had turned up just last week, possibly due to this South American strike.  Seasonally speaking, however, soybean futures do turn the corner right about this time so I’m happy to be with the new-found trend. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Hog Futures: The Only Commodity to Fall More Than Oil

Despite energy and gold dominating the news wires recently, lean hog futures are the one commodity that has actually fallen MORE than crude oil.  Lean hog futures are actually up 40 points at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (as of this writing), but in the overall scheme of things the hog market has actually plummeted over 51% since the end of last June. “Lean hog” (futures) – the market-term designating butchered pigs regardless of size – have only sunk in price after reaching record highs last summer after a terrible disease decimated supplies.  Thankfully to the credit of resourceful pig farmers, once the virus ran its course more hogs made it to the market and the USDA projects a 5.5% rise in pork production this year at a time of slowing int’l demand. Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current hog futures situation by stating, “As fast as the hog futures were rising with the wrath of last year’s virus, hog prices are coming down twice as fast due to a combination increased supply and lessor demand.” The trend for hog futures is down with no clear bottom yet in sight.  All lean hog rallies should be viewed as opportunities to get in on the short side – which is where I’m at. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Russell 2000 Index and Cotton, NASDAQ & S&P 500 Indices (These three new this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle, Coffee, Kansas Wheat and Sugar (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...