Soybean Futures Hit New Low with Estimated Record Plantings

Soybean futures tumbled to new lows after the long awaited USDA prospective plantings report was released. Soybean futures have since rebounded off of the lows and are currently “unchanged” for the day (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade. Here’s a brief summary of the prospective plantings report from 2014: Corn planted acreage DOWN 2%, along with all wheat acreage also DOWN 3%, and cotton acreage DOWN 13%. Soybean acreage, however, continues to climb…albeit only estimated UP 1% from last year, is a record high. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current soybean futures situation saying, “With record soybean inventories fresh on everybody’s mind, the record plantings can only speak of one thing, and that is demand.” Craney adds, “We’ll see how soybean futures unfolds from here…” Soybean futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight – especially after making new lows after the report. Looking for a short soybean futures position when the dust settles in this market. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  None at this time. DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Lean Hogs, Coffee, Crude Oil, Gold, S&P 500 Index, Euro-FX, British Pound, Sugar, Soymeal, Japanese Yen & Soy Oil (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

After Reaching Two Month Highs, Corn Futures in Retreat

Corn futures extended its gains early in the trading session to trade at highs not seen since last month, but has since abruptly turned around to trade lower for the day. Corn futures are currently $3.91 per bushel, down .04 cents at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures have gained 5% since last Wednesday’s low reportedly from technical buying once futures broke above key moving averages after the USDA Crop Progress report. A US Dollar declining from it’s highs has also played a role in stronger corn, I suspect. Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental view regarding the current corn futures situation by stating, “We know the supply is abundant, but we don’t know what the dollar wants to do.” Riordan adds, “With corn being the country’s biggest cash-crop, importers will still hold out until a clearer picture with the currency situation unfolds.” The trend in corn futures has technically turned “up” with today’s very brief spike higher. With the complete and immediate turn-around with corn futures following that high, I will view it as a false signal until today’s high is to be taken out. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Cattle Futures Rising Takes Ground Beef to Record Highs Last Month

Cattle futures have climbed back higher and apparently had taken ground beef prices with it to all-time record highs. The average price of ground beef almost hit $4.24 per pound, while feeder cattle futures have come within .10 cents of their all-time highs earlier this week at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In August of last year the average price of ground beef topped $4 a pound for the first time, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) released revised data yesterday reporting the new record high for ground beef to be $4.238 per pound in February. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view regarding the current cattle futures situation by stating, “We’re still seeing the repercussions of culling the domestic cattle herd in 2013.” Plotkin adds, “Cattle producers are adding to their production, but supply is obviously outpacing demand.” Cattle futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I am looking to reset a long position that was offset just before Friday afternoon’s “cattle on feed” report with cattle futures now pulling back. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

With Crop Conditions Improving, Wheat Futures Lower

Wheat futures have retreated from five-week highs after the USDA reported all domestic winter-wheat crop conditions improving last week. Wheat futures are down more than .10 cents per bushel today (as of this writing) and down as much as .15 cents from their highs yesterday at the Chicago Board of Trade. The USDA revealed Oklahoma winter-wheat rated 44% good to excellent and Texas winter-wheat at 55% – both improving by 4% from the previous week. In Kansas (the country’s top producing wheat state), only 41% of the wheat crop was rated good excellent which is unchanged from the previous week. Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental view regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, “The winter wheat conditions may have improved overall, but is that amount enough…?” Evans adds, “Wheat futures, after-all, are in a new up-trend at normally the wrong time of the year.” The trend for wheat futures has emerged up (surprisingly) only last week. The seasonal tendency is for wheat futures to be trending in the opposite direction (“down”) from February through July, so I am a bit skeptical about what has unfolding, but will trade accordingly. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...