Chinese Meat Demand Boosts Chicken Prices

The quest for protein sources in China have shifted from beef, to pork, and now reportedly to chicken from foreign sources to keep pace with their poultry demand. Chicken (spot) prices have been trading near $1.115 per pound which is down about .045c from just last year at this time when prices were at a multi-year high at the Georgia docks. A year and a half ago, China banned the imports of white broiler chicken meat from the US due to bird-flu concerns – the US providing 90% of China’s supply. China then turned to France for its chicken meat imports, but bird-flu concerns reportedly halted trade with that country and then turned to New Zealand and most recently Thailand. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the chicken broiler market by stating, “Chicken prices in Thailand are said to be up a significant 7% in over the past week due to China’s tender.” Plotkin adds, “This pick-up in demand is most likely a reaction attributed to China’s reported 20% supply reduction due to breeding stock trade restrictions.” The trend for chicken prices have been up steadily for the past four years from .86c per pound in April 2011 until June 2015 – topping out at $1.16 wholesale. Since this time last year, chicken prices have retreated back to $1.12 where they are today. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal, Crude Oil, Lumber, Sugar, S&P 500 Index, Soybeans and Cotton & Corn (Both new this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  N/A ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Soymeal Futures Reach New Contract Highs as Domestic Supplies Tighten

Soymeal futures reached their highest prices in over a year and a half due to the outlook for Argentina’s supply (the world’s biggest soymeal exporter) and tightening supplies here in the US. Today soymeal futures extended their gains to nearly $420 per ton and are currently up $5 for the day trading at $412.20 at the Chicago Board of Trade. Aside from Argentina’s soybean disruption, soymeal production here in the US is reportedly being disrupted due to at least two processing plants temporarily closed for seasonal maintenance. Soymeal is a preferred high-protein animal feed used for livestock all over the world. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the soymeal futures market by stating, “There is both a Northern & Southern Hemisphere source for soybean bi-products, but with reported wide-spread flooding damaging the soybean crop in Argentina, the global supplies for soybean usage is threatened.” Bourbeau adds, “A lesser soybean harvest simply threatens meeting global demands for the products it produces.” Soymeal futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I am seeing in my studies of soybean and soymeal futures the market is leaving little room for complacency when deciding when to “get in” these futures markets. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

World’s Commodity Prices May Be Set by China

China has made a bold move lately and has virtually put the world “on notice” that it wants to be the authority in global raw materials markets and setting prices for these commodities. It is well known China is the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals and energy products, but they want to move away from being dependent on outside financial centers for their purchases. China has long pledged to open up their markets to foreign investors – with current raw material trading there still off limits to average overseas investors – as currency restrictions are still a roadblock. It appears now, however, that perhaps they want to establish commodity dominance before their currency obstacle is removed. “We’re facing a chance of a lifetime to become a global pricing center for commodities,” said Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s annual conference in the city on Wednesday, sharing his fundamental assessment of the commodity futures market. Qinghai added, “On the way to realize this goal, we’ll see very intense competition. We have the advantage of trading size and economic growth, but our legislation is still not sound and we lack enough talent.” The agricultural commodity markets have had a boost in volatility lately that has been attributed to China’s involvement. They really want to set global prices for raw commodity markets…? Well, they will have their work cut out for them. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU...

Gold Futures Drop $78 From May High Amid Surging Dollar

Gold futures continue their tumble from its May 2nd high as domestic economic data continues to lift the dollar and the perception of declining British sentiment of exiting the EU also weighing on the precious metal. June Gold futures are down nearly $22 today (as of this writing) currently trading at $1,229.60 per ounce at the Commodity Exchange in New York. The Department of Commerce has reported new home sales for last month soaring 16.6% – the highest gain in almost 25 years – and tomorrow the Federal House Finance Agency is expected to report a one-half of 1% gain for single-family homes for the month of March. The news has helped push the US Dollar Index more than one-third of 1% to its highest level in two months – testing its December high. “A stronger dollar eases the price of dollar-denominated commodities such as gold making it more expensive for foreign-buyers, and more advantageous for those using the greenback as their primary currency,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the gold futures market. Levy added, “Should the Federal Reserve decide to hike interest-rates, or even ‘hint’ at doing so, this could also be potentially bearish for gold futures.” The technical trend for gold futures is confirmed down as of today. My study shows a primary target for gold at the $1,110 level with the possibility of moving down to the December $1,050 support level. Other counterparts of mine show $1,184 as their primary target with the distinct possibility for gold futures to get down to the...