by Brian Schad | Jul 29, 2015 | Cattle Futures, Feeder Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures are said to be following their typical spring high to summer low trading pattern – albeit at much higher beef prices than just a few years ago – but there are signs prices can resume higher once the summer slump has passed. Feeder cattle futures are up today $0.575 cents per pound currently trading at $211.82 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Feeder cattle prices from early April (to present) have fallen almost $22 per pound – a 13% drop in price – but in the five year period from 2010 to 2014 feeder cattle prices have averaged not quite a 10% drop in the same time period. Industry experts claim feeders may continue to drop until mid-August, but find some type of support thereafter. “Cattle (futures) prices are still high and the bigger than usual drop in price may reflect beef prices coming back to normal,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the cattle futures markets. Taylor added, “When beef prices are high the average consumer finds alternative meals to afford, or feed their family’s. This cattle situation is no different.” Feeder cattle futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. In my study I find there is support coming in at $206.00 (CWT) which tells me feeder cattle futures can still slip lower from this current level. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING...
by Brian Schad | Dec 2, 2014 | Cattle Futures, Feeder Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Feeder cattle futures spiked higher this morning after a “limit-up” session yesterday most likely on the Canadian beef scare. The ag-company Cargill has recalled all ground-beef products sold in Wal-Mart stores (under the brand name “Your Fresh Market”) from British Columbia to Manitoba, but before realizing the entire situation cattle futures had spiked higher. The good news for consumers is that no illnesses have been reported so far in the food-safety investigation underway while the 31,000lbs of beef packaged at Cargill’s Calgary, Alberta plant are being inspected. Cattle futures have since retreated $2.50 from their highs today. Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis insight regarding the current cattle futures situation by stating, “The fact that Cargill and beef inspectors have this situation ‘by the horns’ should take the scare out of cattle futures trading.” Taylor added, “Thankfully no beef consumers were harmed by the products sold, and that too should be a relief in the cattle futures trading pits.” Cattle futures trend remains “up,” but is at a crossroad. Cattle futures came very close to turning the corner (to “down”) last week until the Canadian-beef scare was realized over the weekend. These market require extra supervision lately…and I’m on it. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Nov 12, 2014 | Cattle Futures, Feeder Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Feeder cattle futures show no signs of backing off their record high prices set just last month and according to an industry expert, cattle feeding margins last week are topping out at a handsome $209 per head. Feeder cattle futures are currently trading at $2.3345 per pound (as of this writing) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – this is between the early October contract high of nearly $2.40 and last month’s low of $2.25725 per pound. The beef experts went on to say feeding profits may be down $20 bucks per head from last month, but are $177 higher than this same time last year. Beef packers, however, claim they are experiencing long running negative margins and only seeing modest improvement of $8 per head – only realizing a $75 average loss per animal processed saying this is nearly double from only last month. “We’ll most likely see high prolonged beef prices until the domestic herd is brought up to former levels where supply met demand. I understand this may be as long as two-three more years according to beef authorities,” stated Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current feeder cattle futures situation. The trend for feeder cattle futures has resumed up only recently in my work. With the market currently testing last month’s contract high price, there is no bottom yet in sight. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER...
by Brian Schad | Jul 22, 2014 | Feeder Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures are signaling high beef prices to continue as the futures markets surge to new records. Feeder cattle is “limit-up” and live cattle futures are .37 cents from limit-up on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as of this writing. With the US domestic-herd shrinking to supplies not seen since the early 1950’s, the dwindling supplies have helped push beef prices to all-time highs. Bureau of Labor Statistics show ground-beef reaching a record $3.88 per pound last month and bone-less sirloin peaking out at nearly $7.69. “Increasingly larger demand for beef at record (beef prices) has caught the market by surprise. While supplies are much tighter than expected it’s even more of a surprise to see (cattle futures) demand hold firm at the elevated prices levels,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current cattle futures situation. We are long feeder cattle futures from Friday with both a target price (218.62) and protective stop in place. Another limit-up day tomorrow and we could very easily realize our feeder cattle futures target. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
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