USDA Downgrade of Harvest & Stocks a Boost For Wheat Futures

Wheat futures have rebounded from negative territory after the USDA reported the current harvest and inventories of the grain rose less than analysts predicted. Wheat futures are up more than .07 cents today currently trading at $5.11 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat futures gained 2% for the day when before the USDA report was released it was trading just below $5 per bushel, but immediately following the report it quickly shot-up to nearly $5.15 per bushel. Although today’s USDA estimate is more than last year’s wheat output, it is reportedly 85M less than what was estimated by them only three weeks ago. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shares her view regarding the fundamental situation of the wheat futures markets by stating, “The wheat (futures) trade was looking for supportive numbers having changed trends (from down) lately.” Taylor added, “In the bigger scheme of things it will take much more exports, or demand picture overall, to sustain and support this market in my view.” The trend for wheat futures is mixed with soft-red variety in a new uptrend, but hard-red still in a technical downtrend. Wheat futures tend to drift higher this time of year well after their northern hemisphere harvest, but I’ll need to see a more clearer picture unfold before getting too excited about being on the long side. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU...

Corn Futures Pricing-In Harvest at 18% Complete

The corn futures trade is pricing-in the harvest activity currently underway in the 18 states that have made-up 94% of last year’s corn acreage. Corn futures are up almost .03 cents today trading at $3.895 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The nation’s primary corn producing states begin in the Great Plains region from as far south as Texas straight up to the Canadian boarder, to as far east as Pennsylvania. As of Sunday, the USDA reports the cumulative amount of states producing corn are 18% harvested which can be compared to the five-year average of 23% harvested at this point in time. “Some of the corn producing states are way ahead in their harvest than others,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his assessment regarding the fundamental situation of the corn futures markets. Medina adds, “In the next month the corn (futures) trade will be looking even closer at the harvest progress – still early in the corn harvest period for something definite to be foretelling.” Corn futures trend is down, however at a crossroad. If corn futures can trade above yesterday’s high of $3.925 per bushel in the next couple of days, that could change the technical picture. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Lean Hogs DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Coffee, Cotton & Feeder Cattle ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

US Data & Need for Fed Clarification Send Gold Futures Soaring

Gold futures have blasted-off today reportedly once mixed domestic data highlighted uncertainty with the Federal Reserves timing of their next rate hike. Gold futures are up $22.40 per ounce currently trading at $1,153.90 at the New York Commodity Exchange. The US Commerce and Labor Departments both released information such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (and “core” durable goods orders), orders & shipments for core capital goods, which came in outside analysts projections, but also revisions from previous reports were eye-openers for the gold trade. Later today, the Federal Reserves Chairwoman will be delivering a speech that investors will be listening to that may provide clarity on last week’s decision to keep interest-rates steady. “Much information released today which the gold (futures) trade is projecting as inflationary,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his assessment regarding the fundamental situation of the gold futures markets. Craney adds, “Couple the possibility of inflation with the fed’s leaving interest-rates unchecked and boom, there goes gold (futures).” The trend for gold has been back and forth with big swings in the past month, and is now at a crossroad to switch back up. Gold futures will require a little more action to the upside to change the direction to up in my work, however. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Soybean Futures at Risk with the Drop of Brazilian Real

Soybean futures have been put on notice coming into the northern hemisphere harvest, but in the southern, the currency crisis in Brazil has been a boon to soybean farmers there looking to unload their crop. Soybean futures, down four out of the last five trading sessions, is holding steady (up just over a penny) currently near $8.62 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The Brazilian Real has fallen to a record low compared to the US Dollar, but the fall of the currency is setting-up favorable conditions for farmer’s there to see record high soybean sowings, despite early dry weather conditions. This Brazilian currency crisis, which provides great support for those farmers, may be an Achilles heel to farmers elsewhere with soybeans plentiful in supplies and stocks. “Soybeans are reportedly selling for nearly $20.50 per sack at Brazil’s port of Paranagua which is up 33% for the year – good for the economy there,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his assessment regarding the fundamental situation of the soybean futures markets. Plotkin adds, “Here in Chicago, however, soybean (futures) are down just over 14% in this same period. We may be chasing the Brazilian soybean market here…” Soybean futures’ trend is down with no bottom yet in sight, however, the market is approaching long-term support that goes back to late 2012/early 2013. With harvest period in sight, I expect soybean futures to remain choppy to down at best until clearer fundamental conditions are learned after harvest. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION...