Schad’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal, Lean Hogs, Cotton, Feeder Cattle, CBT Wheat, Kansas Wheat and Sugar (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Copper ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Retreat from 10-Month High on U.S. Crop Outlook; Wheat Futures

The outlook for wheat futures remains that cold & dry weather will reduce the forthcoming yield potential in the fields of the world’s biggest exporter of wheat (here in the US). This view is seen in the ten-month high in wheat futures prices just this morning. A prominent weather forecaster stated in a report earlier today about two-thirds of the wheat growing region will remain dry for the remainder of this month. Other USDA data reveals wheat crops deteriorating in both Kansas & Texas as of last weekend and the ongoing drought in Texas has expanded north of its boarders. Matt Zeman, a senior commodity broker at Kingsview in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current wheat futures situation, “The wheat crop is in danger of seeing significant yield losses, and the dry forecast is not doing the (wheat futures) market any favors.” Zeman adds, “Wheat needs rain-and lots of it very soon.” The trend in wheat futures is up with no top yet in sight. We had been long Kansas City Wheat until the “target price” was realized, and we exited CBT Wheat when it was realized the market couldn’t hold its gains. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Soybean Futures Rebound on Signs of Tight Domestic Supplies

Soybean futures have been lifted from a recent pull-back in prices in the last week amid signs of contracting US soybean stockpiles. Soybean futures are up over 0.15 cents per bushel (as of this writing) following a near 0.30 cent rise yesterday.   He’s the good news for US soybean farmers: industry data revealed earlier this week shows demand from domestic soybean processors rose almost 4% in February compared to the same time last year. Plus, soybean exporters have sold more of their product since the marketing fiscal year began in September than the USDA projected for the full season. Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean futures situation, “Soybean (futures) continue to attract capital on the buy side as expectations of tightening of US stocks offer support.” The trend for soybean futures remain UP, the market tests its March 7th recent highs. We are long soybean futures, but I have tightened the protective sell stop earlier this morning. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Drought Conditions in Asian Growing Areas Bullish for Soybean Oil

Soybean oil may be in for a boost in price very soon. The world’s top three palm oil producers in SE Asia claim “prices have the potential to rise” because of drought conditions in the growing areas of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The Hamburg, Germany research group “Oil World” stated in their report dry weather for the past two months has created moisture shortages for some plantings and water rationing. They also say continue dryness in the next two weeks may prompt “an even more bullish supply scenario” for the forthcoming year. Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean oil futures situation, “Oil share is getting hit again. The tightness in soybeans and soybean meal is leaking into the soybean oil.” Moreno added, “Expect soybean oil to move higher.” Soybean oil’s trend is up despite the pull-back in price since the March 7th high. I am looking for buy signals in soybean oil as of this writing. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them: UP Trending Futures Markets: Coffee, Soymeal, Gold, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Soybeans, Cotton, Feeder Cattle, S&P 500 Index, CBT Wheat and Kansas Wheat (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Copper (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...