Grain Futures Lower as Outlook Appears to Add to Glut

Corn futures & soybean futures stockpiles may be large now, but farmers in the Midwest seem to have no choice but to add to the grain glut. Corn futures & soybeans ended down .06 & .0775 settling near $3.67 & $9.0825 (respectively) today at the Chicago Board of Trade. Even though farmers claim the crops won’t be profitable, with bills to pay they can’t afford to leave land idle. US farm income is reportedly at a 14-year low. “Here in the Midwest, where I grew-up, the name of the game for all farmers and grain producers is to make it through the season, pay your bills, and do what needs to be done to get to the next harvest,” said Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the grain futures market. Bourbeau added, “There is not much choice, especially for the small corn and soybean farmer, to plant more during a glut with the anticipation to at least break even.” The trend for corn & soybean futures are both technically “up” – albeit in not-so-strong trends. Corn futures & soybeans appear to be in buy zones at this time, however not in front of a major USDA crop report tomorrow morning. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

More Beef for Supper, Once Again: Cattle Futures

Cattle futures have seen values rise since the February low due to domestic beef consumption expected to be on the rise. June cattle futures, however, are “unchanged” for the day currently trading at $125.52 (per cwt) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The USDA reportedly says Americans are set to consume 54.3lbs of red meat this year – almost one-half pound more than last year – which will be the first increase seen since 2006. Just two years earlier, the US cattle-herd was the lowest in six-decades after prolonged drought in the south and southwest forced ranchers to curb their herds and sent beef prices soaring. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “The pendulum does swing the other way.” Levy adds, “Cattle (futures) prices were so high ranchers did everything they could to add on to their herd, which has ultimately added to supply.” Cattle futures trend, albeit technically up at this time, are at a crossroads. If the June Cattle futures contract were to take out Thursday’s low (124.32) without heading back up to the 127.00 benchmark first, then that would change the trend to down. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Hog Futures Seen With More Upside Potential as Low-Priced Meat

Hog futures are little changed today as a prominent French bank declares pork the meat with the most upside potential as US consumers seek more affordability with meats. Hog futures for June delivery are down .30 cents currently trading at $83.45 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Despite increasing pork supplies, the bullish outlook remains strong with pork production up 1% so far this year. Hog supplies are recovering from the outbreak of the virus which killed-off much of the animals only a couple of years ago, and the amount of pork in cold supply are also reportedly high. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the hog futures market by stating, “Although we’ve seen hogs rally since the beginning of the year, pork prices remain historically low-priced compared to beef prices.” Brady adds, “For thrift-saving Americans, pork is poised to take over domestic market share.” The trend for hog futures is up with highs made just this time last week. Hog futures do remain strong, however, some type of technical pullback seems to be in order soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Egypt’s Forthcoming Wheat Supplies Will Depend on United Nation’s Review

Wheat futures recent uptick in activity may have have something to do with the world’s biggest wheat buyer conceding to import wheat with traces of fungus in it despite an ongoing dispute. Wheat futures is down .05 cents today currently trading at $4.7225 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. Egypt now says it will allow wheat with the ergot fungus into the country with the assistance of the UN Food & Agriculture Organization to help resolve the dispute on a scientific basis. The fungus is a common problem with grain shipments, but Egypt had put its foot down rejecting grain shipments in the past causing a crisis in global suppliers. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the wheat futures market by stating, “This dilemma of ergot fungus with wheat has persisted for months now and maybe it does take a United Nations body of people to mediate the situation properly so the Egyptians have more confidence.” Taylor adds, “The country is, after-all, the biggest importers of wheat in the world and the problem could be elevated to a national security problem if it got out of hand.” Wheat futures trend has turned “up” only recently with little follow through to the upside. I would expect wheat futures to test their contract lows soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Sugar Futures Back at Highs with Strong Fundamentals

Sugar futures are quickly back at last year’s highs after sinking .03 cents by last month as a major investment bank claims fundamentals are lending more to support high sugar prices. Sugar futures backed off 10 points today with trading settling near .1532 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange. With hedge-fund selling out of the way, uncertainty about Chinese economic growth put aside, and multi-year low oil (delivery) prices now being realized, demand has reemerged into the picture with an increased forecast to this season’s sugar deficit. The investment bank claims the extent to which supply outstrips demand is 2.1M tons to 6.8M tons. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “It didn’t take long for the fundamental situation to assert the role of the sugar market driving factor when technical selling ruled the day in January and February.” Craney adds, “Now other factors such as rebound of the US Dollar, a return to weakness in Brazil’s currency, or a stall in other commodity’s could weigh on sugar prices.” The technical trend for sugar futures is clearly up with no top yet in sight. Sugar futures seemed to have claimed a wall from a downtrend in late February, and some kind of corrective pullback should be seen before hoping onboard the long side. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT...