Cocoa Futures May Be In For a Bumpy Ride

Cocoa futures have been on a rollercoaster since February (albeit one could argue December) and if one analyst is correct there is more volatility ahead. Cocoa futures are down 14 points today currently trading at $2,991 per ton for September delivery at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York City. Its not only the uncertainty of the West African cocoa crop prospects, but with last year’s deficit there may need to be heavy production to make up the shortfall. The ongoing weather outlook is believed to be the catalyst for the cocoa market trading erratically. Judith Ganes Chase, a leading independent consultant for soft commodities, shared her fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “Following a production deficit of 180,000 tonnes in 2015-16, conditions need to be very favorable to close this gap and swing the market to a large surplus.” Gates Chase adds, “This will be more of a challenge with cocoa processing margins now attractive, leading to improved demand.” The trend for cocoa futures is “sideways” and at a crossroad. If cocoa futures were to sustain trading above 3200, we may see an up-trend, but a breakout below the February lows of 2750 may take the market lower. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Cocoa Futures Said to Offer Buying Opportunity from Brexit

Cocoa futures are up for the month with possibly more gains to follow if veteran soft commodities analyst Judith Ganes-Chase’s assessment is correct. Cocoa futures are up 11 points today currently trading at $3,112 per ton at the New York Intercontinental Exchange. Ms. Ganes-Chase has uncovered a skew between the British Pound and the Sterling denominated currency after the Brexit two weeks ago, and that is since the collapse of the Pound, Sterling denominated cocoa futures have prospered. Cocoa futures have gained 15% since the Brexit vote two weeks ago. “The collapse in (the British Pound) is not the only reason for investors to buy cocoa,” said Judith Ganes-Chase, founder & president of J.Ganes Consulting, LLC in New York City, sharing her fundamental assessment of the cocoa futures market. Ganes added referring to the delays in deliveries of cocoa beans to Ivory Coast ports (the top cocoa producing country), “Casting the currency aside, worries over slowing arrivals remain the fundamental talking point.” Cocoa futures trend is at a crossroad in consolidation for the past four months. Cocoa futures can trend up on a sustained rally over $3,150, or resume lower on a breakout below $2,950 – so let the market tell you what it wants to do… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Cocoa Futures Lower Despite Ghana’s Cocoa Crop in “Dire Need” of Rainfall

Cocoa futures will soon be reacting to the International Cocoa Organization’s warning of Ghana’s cocoa plantations “in dire need of rainfall.” Cocoa futures are down 24 points today currently trading at $3,035 per ton at the Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa Exchange in New York. The West African nation’s sustained dryness reportedly threatens both cocoa production and quality in the Ivory Coast as well. The dry hot winds coming from the Sahara desert – called the “Harmattan” – has a reputation for hurting cocoa yields, but the ICCO warns that this one is different and is said “to be the worst in three decades.” The International Cocoa Organization, a global organization composed of both cocoa producing and cocoa consuming countries with a membership located in London, shared their fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “Extreme weather conditions, resulting from the severe Harmattan winds within the West African region, combined with the impact of El Niño, have negatively affected the 2015-16 harvests.” The ICCO adds, “In Ghana cocoa farmers are reported to be in dire need of rainfall for the vital development of the mid-crop.” Cocoa futures trend is at a crossroad from being “down.” In my studies, if cocoa futures were to rally up to the 3080 level, then that can alter the trend to back up with resistance all the way up to 3475. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR...

As Asian Grind Rises, Cocoa Futures Rally

Cocoa futures have extended their 2016 gains today amid Asian grinders reporting higher-than-expected volumes. Cocoa futures are down 22 points, however, currently trading at $3,189 per ton at New York’s Intercontinental Exchange. Grinding – looked upon as a way to gauge consumer demand – came in at nearly 149 tons which was up nearly 3% in the first quarter compared to the same time last year, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia, and 1% better than expected. This news has caused cocoa futures to rally nearly 10% since earlier this month. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “The cocoa market is reportedly seeing an uptick in Asian grind, and disappointing arrivals in the Ivory Coast.” Brady adds, “Since January the pace is said to be down about 7% year on year. Just enough to be significant.” The trend for cocoa futures is up with no top yet in sight. At this rate of strength, cocoa futures could easily test the past two years high’s by the end of Spring. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Outlook of Supply Surge Sends Cocoa Futures Plummeting

Cocoa futures appears to have made a turn around today after news from a prominent agri-bank forecasted the largest surplus of cocoa beans in six years. Cocoa futures ended the session down 18 points today with trading settling at $2,963 per ton at the Intercontinental Exchange in London. Last year cocoa futures were the top-performing commodity with reportedly the longest rally in the London Exchange’s history since 1989, and cocoa farmers spanning from Africa to South America are said to be gearing-up to revive supplies for next season. The problem is with demand for cocoa said to be slowing, the risk is for cocoa futures prices to join the other dozen or so flailing commodity markets. Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “International farmers, in this case cocoa, sometimes have a short-sighted view of the future after a market has been so successful last season.” Medina adds, “The cocoa (futures) market has seen four years in a row of good years has surely motivated farmers to increase production.” The trend in cocoa futures is clearly down with no bottom yet in sight. Hopefully cocoa (futures) products will start reflecting lower consumer prices reversing the trend of these past few years. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Africa’s Cocoa Exports Sends Cocoa Futures to New Highs

Cocoa futures rallied to new highs today not seen in four-and-a-half years as West Africa’s cocoa season is reportedly off to a great start. Cocoa futures are up 15 points today trading at $3,392 per ton at the InterContinental Exchange in London. One of Africa’s top agriculture investment bank’s stated the strong start is to be contributed with a rise in farm gate prices encouraging farmers there to drawdown current inventories. Other conditions exist which may keep cocoa in demand since the health of the new crop has yet to be evaluated, and fears of the effect of drier weather affecting this crop. Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “The African cocoa farmers held back on inventory allowing the market to rally to their desired prices for selling their product.” Medina added, “With cocoa (futures) prices at multi-year highs, with uncertain conditions ahead, this situation can now convert to a ‘weather market’ that will have to be watched.” The trend for cocoa futures is up with no top in sight. Much resistance at current levels, but has cocoa futures have proved to be a “buy the dips” market for the past couple of months. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...