Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal and 10yr. T-Notes (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Gold, Copper and Corn, Soy Oil & Coffee (These three new this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Corn Futures Rise, Then Fall, .75 Cents After Wettest Season in 30 Years

Corn futures, in a one month period, have rallied and retreated .75 cents over precipitation concerns in the corn belt region of the Midwest. Corn futures are up .04 cents going into Thursday’s close currently trading just above $3.82 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The rains in the state of Illinois alone are prompting state officials there to possibly request federal disaster assistance after receiving the most rain from May to present in the last 30 years! While Illinois is reported to have over 22 inches of rain between May & June, the water-logged fields might not reduce corn yields as much as it appears – according to an expert Midwestern analyst. “In past years of similar heavy rains when things looked bleak for the corn harvest, the yields surprised the experts and this year is shaping up with similar statistics,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, regarding the fundamental assessment of the corn futures markets. Brady added, “It will take more time to get a clear picture and this suggests more volatility for corn (futures) this summer.” The trend for corn futures is down and this particular market has sold off from its mid-July high near $4.55 per bushel with absolutely no retracement from July 14th. Corn futures is a market that the novice trader should stay away from, and for the professional it should require a contraction of volatility before taking any position. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS...

Summer Slump for Cattle Futures May be Temporary

Cattle futures are said to be following their typical spring high to summer low trading pattern – albeit at much higher beef prices than just a few years ago – but there are signs prices can resume higher once the summer slump has passed. Feeder cattle futures are up today $0.575 cents per pound currently trading at $211.82 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Feeder cattle prices from early April (to present) have fallen almost $22 per pound – a 13% drop in price – but in the five year period from 2010 to 2014 feeder cattle prices have averaged not quite a 10% drop in the same time period. Industry experts claim feeders may continue to drop until mid-August, but find some type of support thereafter. “Cattle (futures) prices are still high and the bigger than usual drop in price may reflect beef prices coming back to normal,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the cattle futures markets. Taylor added, “When beef prices are high the average consumer finds alternative meals to afford, or feed their family’s. This cattle situation is no different.” Feeder cattle futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. In my study I find there is support coming in at $206.00 (CWT) which tells me feeder cattle futures can still slip lower from this current level. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING...

Hog Futures Making Slow Comeback as Record Production Maybe Spurring Demand

Hog futures have halted their first-quarter slide and appear to be making their way higher as record production of hogs is reportedly putting more pork on the menu. Hog futures are up over $1.52 per CWT and are currently trading at $65.07 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Wholesale prices of pork are down 40% since last summer and more restaurants are reportedly buying more of the product to serve and apparently this is creating demand. With prices so low compared to beef, domestic pork production is heading for an all-time high this year. “With all the extra pork supplies out there, restaurants of all types are seeing the value and creating more items to serve to the public,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the hog futures markets. Medina added, “The hog trade appears to have picked-up on the demand and stopped the early year onslaught.” The trend for hog futures appears to be in a very early stage of an up-trend. Prices are still low enough for pork lovers to enjoy their favorite sandwiches or dishes, but a breakout above $72.00 (CWT) could mean steadily higher prices down the road. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal and Soybeans DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Silver, Gold and Copper ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...