Wheat Futures Higher Amid Russia’s Export Surge, But Not For Long

Wheat futures have been taking a break from the sell-off of recent weeks partially because of the Russian surge of wheat exports – but that might all change soon. Wheat futures are up .04 cents today currently trading at $4.025 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The consensus is in with Russia’s bumper wheat crop setting a record high, but the discovery of a worse quality than expected and tough international competition may make getting rid of their grain a challenge for them. They’re not the only country to realize poorer quality wheat, but Australia is experiencing this too putting higher grade wheat in demand. “The quality of wheat is worse this year than a year ago,” said USDA-bureau official, sharing their fundamental assessment of the wheat futures market. The USDA added, “Although the same volumes of good quality wheat are likely, due to the bigger crop, it will be more difficult to compose batches of good wheat.” The technical trend for wheat is “down” with no bottom yet in sight. The wheat futures market is a “sell the rallies” opportunity until a bottom is in. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Soybean Futures Break Even as Brazil Exports Soar Despite Crop Shortfalls

Soybean futures appear to be selling-off today despite crop shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere where crushing plants in Brazil are reportedly cutting back and exports said to be high. Soybean futures are down .16 cents today currently trading at $10.00 even per bushel for November delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade. According to a University of Sao Paulo economic think-tank, despite soybean crop shortfalls Brazil’s soybean exports this year have surpassed those from last year at this time to a record 44.35M metric tons. Soybean meal compared to this same time last year have reportedly risen 8.7%, they also claim. “Part of the reason for reduced crush demand in Brazil is is said to be due to eroding demand from their poultry industry,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Craney added, “Reports of Cargill and another prominent soybean crusher stopped the processing of soybeans reportedly due to lack of demand.” Soybean futures trend had been technically “down” until today’s trading session. When and if soybean futures take out today’s high before any sustained trading below $9.84 over the next week occur, this may change the course of the trend to up. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Corn Futures at a Crossroads as China Set to Cut Corn Production

Corn futures have halted its $1.20 downtrend since mid-June as Reuters has broken the news about China planning to cut corn production. Corn futures are up a mere .01 cent today currently trading at $3.36 per bushel for December delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade. This would be China’s first cut in corn production in 13 years which is reported to be by 3.29M acres, but according to the USDA, China still has 37M hectares devoted to corn – 14M hectares more since 2001. This cut in production is said to be an attempt to reduce massive stockpiles of about 250M tons in inventory. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the corn futures market by stating, “Its obvious to see with so much corn in China’s inventory, there won’t be any imports of corn for them any time soon.” Bourbeau adds, “Now what will this do for our corn (futures) market?” Corn futures trend is “down” with no bottom yet in sight. In my opinion, corn futures prices are treading near production costs so farmers may be wanting to do something about this… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Current Global Grain Market Shines on US Wheat Futures

Wheat futures may be getting a boost today from a report I read regarding Europe’s wheat production challenges a possible boon for the American farmer in the foreseeable future. Wheat futures are up .01 cent today currently trading at $4.16 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. This past week it was observed by a commodity trading professional that Europe seems to have a double-whammy problem of “quality problems” over a broad area and talk from across the pond that the yield isn’t as quite good as expected. There is a very good possibility that some European business may be shifting to the United States. Jim Bower, of Bower Trading – a commodity futures specialty firm, shared his fundamental view of the wheat futures market by stating, “I actually thought wheat acted halfway decent [this past week] because it seemed kind of to ignore bearish news.” Bower adds, “Now it may take a little while, but I think the worst is over in wheat.” Wheat futures trend is “down” with no bottom formation completely in sight. Wheat futures current low around the $4.07 level is currently being tested.. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Egypt Said to be Loading Up at Bargain Wheat Futures Prices

Wheat futures continue to fall after Egypt reportedly tendered their second wheat purchase of the season from four different sources. Wheat futures are down just over .10 cents today currently trading near $4.19 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The worlds number one wheat importer (Egypt) is said to have paid more for its wheat this past weekend – which is so early in the season – despite discounts from many wheat merchants underscoring a shift to the east in export competition. The 300T tons purchased is almost $2 a ton more purchased on Saturday than today (Tuesday). “Initially there were 12 offers to Egypt’s wheat tenders and eight merchants actually dropped their price for the weekend business,” said Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the wheat futures market. Bourbeau added, “Wheat certainly remains abundant now and the (wheat futures) prices reflect that.” The trend for wheat futures is “down” with a possible bottom in place. Although this is the time of year when wheat futures rally, it is still very weak looking in my technical analysis study on my charts. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

With La Nina Concerns Aside, Soybean Futures Extend Losses

Soybean futures continue to spiral lower losing more than 10% this week (so far) as La Nina probabilities subside with favorable weather prospects, prompting holders of long positions to scramble. Soybean futures are down over .50 cents today currently trading at $10.23 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. Assisting the liquidation of long positions of both futures & options were also key support levels taken out over the past three to four weeks causing soybeans to drop about 5% alone. Today marks the first close below the 10-week moving average for soybeans since early March. “We’re seeing the typical hesitation to buy, rush to sell mode by traders when weather is involved,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Taylor added, “But don’t rule out La Nina just yet because the weatherman is saying it could be delayed until September.” The trend for soybean futures is “down” (in my study of daily charts) as of today’s .50 cent move lower. Before hoping aboard the soybean futures sinking ship, I would consider a technical bounce higher and utilizing soybean options as a hedge. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...