Even with Heavy Brazilian Production, Sugar Futures Rise

Sugar futures are defying fundamental news such as favorable weather contributing to brisk production in Brazil’s south center sugar-belt region. Sugar futures are up 25 points today currently trading at $0.2023 per pound for October delivery at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York City. Brazil’s “sugar council” Unica reports the south central sugar producing region was up just over 3M tons in the second-half of last month – that’s reportedly up 9.5% from the first-half of July and up 10.6% from the same time last year. With favorable weather in the region, it is allowing a good pace for sugar-cane cutting. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “Besides the rapid pace in cane cutting, the price of sugar does not favor ethanol production at this time .” Plotkin adds, “We can expect sugar mills to produce more sugar because of these high gas prices.” The technical trend for sugar futures remains “up” with a possible top in place, however. If sugar futures were to breakout below .1875 with lower lows, we could possibly see a new down-trend for this market. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

“Higher Prices Here to Stay” for Sugar Futures?

Sugar futures are on the march higher from last summer’s lows and since April when an industry expert helped propel the market higher when it was claimed “sugar prices are here to stay” because of a current world deficit. Sugar futures, however, are down 30 points today currently trading at $0.1942 per pound at the New York Intercontinental Exchange. It is reportedly estimated that more than 22M tons of inventories over two growing seasons have been removed from supplies, and now the experts have once again altered the forecast for the world sugar production shortfall by another 1.1M tons. Much of this downward revision said to be due to droughts in both Central Europe and India. “It appears that no matter what the combined two sugar growing seasons produce, sugar stocks will withdrawn by more than 22 million tons,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his fundamental assessment of the sugar futures market. Brady added, “With this being the case for sugar (futures), stand-by for volatility ahead.” The technical trend for sugar futures is “up” with a possible top in sight made in the last trading sessions in June. Sugar futures still “appear” strong, however some type of pullback is expected in this market given the recent gains it has made this past spring and early summer. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Flourishing Market Makes Sugar Futures at Risk for Sell-Off

Sugar futures extended their gains only slightly today but one bank warns of heavy fund activity making sugar vulnerable to a sell-off. Sugar futures are up 5 points today currently trading at .1966 per pound at the New York Intercontinental Exchange. Even with increasing expectations for next season’s sugar deficit, a prominent Dutch-bank feels strongly the sugar market sentiment has been exaggerated much ahead of the fundamental situation. Any shift in production at this point – the bank points out – could encourage a “rush for the exit” in this heavily top-heavy market. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “The fundamental situation reportedly supports higher sugar (futures) prices, but with no significant pull-back after a nickel rise I can understand the bank’s statements.” Taylor adds, “The .20c psychological price is fast approaching and if sugar futures were to sell-off, this may be the turning point price.” The technical trend for sugar futures is up with no top yet in sight. Sugar futures have accelerated almost two-cents ahead of it 18-day moving average, so we can easily see a pull-back to the mid-.17c level (in my study). ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Higher Than Expected Stocks Setback Sugar Futures

Sugar futures have reversed course after an emerging uptrend Friday once USDA officials came to the conclusion sugar stocks will hit a nine-year high. Sugar futures are down 15 points today currently trading at .1606 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York. It is estimated European Union sugar production will increase by 17% in the forthcoming season to 17.4M tons – 900T tons of it intended for commercial use – which compares to the EU’s estimate of 17.6M tons. The USDA Brussel’s bureau, however, revised down the current marketing year’s ending stocks to 1.27M tons, but still 562T tons greater than the official USDA estimate. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “What is not being mentioned is the heavy carryover of sugar stocks from the bumper crop 2014-15 season.” Levy adds, “We may be seeing higher sugar (futures) prices because of the overall global shortfall in production this season.” The technical trend for sugar futures has turned “up” late last week. Sugar futures will need to breakout above .17c per pound and demonstrate follow-through for the uptrend to most likely be sustained. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Sugar Futures Back at Highs with Strong Fundamentals

Sugar futures are quickly back at last year’s highs after sinking .03 cents by last month as a major investment bank claims fundamentals are lending more to support high sugar prices. Sugar futures backed off 10 points today with trading settling near .1532 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange. With hedge-fund selling out of the way, uncertainty about Chinese economic growth put aside, and multi-year low oil (delivery) prices now being realized, demand has reemerged into the picture with an increased forecast to this season’s sugar deficit. The investment bank claims the extent to which supply outstrips demand is 2.1M tons to 6.8M tons. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “It didn’t take long for the fundamental situation to assert the role of the sugar market driving factor when technical selling ruled the day in January and February.” Craney adds, “Now other factors such as rebound of the US Dollar, a return to weakness in Brazil’s currency, or a stall in other commodity’s could weigh on sugar prices.” The technical trend for sugar futures is clearly up with no top yet in sight. Sugar futures seemed to have claimed a wall from a downtrend in late February, and some kind of corrective pullback should be seen before hoping onboard the long side. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT...

Sugar Futures May be Overcompensating for Perceived Brazil Output

Sugar futures, in the early stages of a new downtrend, may be “too optimistic” about Brazil’s rise of sugar production in the next season says one industry analyst. Sugar futures are down five live today currently trading at $0.1315 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange The production of sugar is indeed set to rise next season in Brazil’s South Center region, but not as much as others are forecasting because sugar mills there are reportedly approaching their maximum capacity. Estimates for sugar production in the sugar growing region in Brazil is expected to be 33M tons on the lower end, and as much as 34.5M on the higher estimate. “These estimates for sugar from analysts & economists sometimes do not take into consideration process capacity, breakdowns of equipment, rain delays, strikes from employees (like we saw just late last year), maintenance stoppages,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his fundamental assessment of the sugar futures market. Brady added, “There could be as much as 15% non-usage for a sugar mill due to unforeseen circumstances.” The technical trend for sugar is “down” as of late last month. Solid support for sugar futures prices comes in at .11 cents per pound. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...