Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Gold and 10yr. T-Notes (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle, Cotton, Coffee, Sugar, Japanese Yen and Soybeans (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Foreign Exporters & Domestic Ranchers Helping Push Wheat Futures Lower

Wheat futures is playing a cruel joke on our domestic farmers despite having the smallest crop harvested recently for the past three years. Wheat futures are finding lower prices because of outside factors such as surging wheat output overseas and a switching in feed in domestic use. Now that feed prices have come back down to reality, US cattle ranchers have resumed using more corn in their livestock’s feed – which makes sense. What makes more “cents” is the fact our strong US Dollar is promoting other nations to look for wheat supplies elsewhere where the supply is much more plentiful – and less expensive. “The obvious choice for wheat importers are to buy where their currency is the strongest, and wheat supplies abound,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis insight regarding the current wheat futures situation. Levy added, “As long as our domestic wheat prices remain uncompetitive, we can expect lower (wheat) futures prices.” The trend for wheat futures is down with no bottom yet in price. I will need some type of relief rally before getting short wheat futures. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Crude Oil Futures Poised for Further Drop on Iraqi Oil Surge

Crude oil futures are hovering just below $45 per barrel and appear for a breakout lower with the forthcoming revelation. The whole breakdown of crude oil prices from OPEC members competing for global customers is about to accelerate with Iraqi oil production. Oil production from Iraq is actually said to be climbing from a 35-year high as the southern oil fields remain untouched by ISIS militants, and adds a growing supply of oil from the Kurdish region (up north) to its exports. To match buyers with the added production will mean only one thing – offering more attractive incentives to buy than competing rivals of the OPEC nations. “We have been led to believe the price war of crude oil has been between the US and Saudi Arabia, but now we are realizing perhaps the bigger explanation with an inter-OPEC rivalry,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis insight regarding the current crude oil futures situation. Taylor added, “All OPEC members have defended their market share (by cutting prices), but with Iraq adding volume to inventory can lead to another leg down in crude oil futures.” Crude oil futures trend is down with no clear bottom in sight. A decisive move below $45 per barrel can send crude oil futures to its next support level of $40. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR...

With Chinese Growth Seen Slowing, Copper Futures Near Five-Year Low

Copper futures is realizing the repercussions of the world’s largest industrial metal consumer’s industrial production slowing down. China’s industrial growth has seen its smallest gain in almost 15 years and copper futures is reflecting revelation currently down 900 points in New York’s Commodity Exchange. Chinese government data reports last year’s metal-consumer’s earnings may have increased, albeit a meager 3.3%, but last month profit slid by 8% – the third straight month of declines. To make matters worst for copper futures, here in the US durable goods orders also fell for the fourth consecutive month and the US is the second biggest user of copper. “Copper prices are getting a one-two punch from the world’s top end users of the (industrial) metal,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current copper futures situation. Medina added, “Copper futures seem to be looking ahead to demand and it’s just not there.” The trend for copper futures is nothing but down with new lows made just yesterday. We had a couple of copper futures trades earlier this month, but I need volatility to contract some before getting short this market once again. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Gold and Silver DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle and Cotton, Coffee, Sugar, Japanese Yen, Soy Oil & Soymeal (These six new this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...