Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  S&P 500 Index, Corn, Soymeal, Soybeans (All new this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, Euro-currency, Copper, Soybean Oil, Crude Oil and Silver (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Livestock & Poultry Spark Biggest Soybean Meal Feed-Price Rally Since 1974

Soybean meal futures are seeing it’s biggest monthly gains in four decades as livestock & poultry feed made from soybeans is soaring due to rail-trains not being able to get feed to the animals fast enough. Soybean meal futures are down over $15 per ton currently trading at $381 in Chicago (as of this writing). The “Association of American Railroads” date show weekly speed-train (deliveries) fell last week to the slowest rates since Spring of 2010 – while terminal waiting delays rose to its highest level since July. Soybean meal futures have spiked 31% this month alone with meat prices hovering near record highs spurring the current soy-feed demand against current shipping delays from processing plants in the Midwest. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current soybean meal futures situation by stating today, “(Soybean meal futures) surged higher this week due in large part to farmers holding back supplies rather than selling them at recent low prices. Livestock farmers account for the large demand for soymeal as they are sitting on large herds, and are trying to deal with the tight supply situation and delivery difficulties due to problems with transportation of the product.” Soybean meal futures are clearly up with no top yet in sight. I exited our soybean meal futures position prematurely when it appeared a pull-back was in order. I am looking for a way back in… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL....

Wheat Futures Grinding Higher on Russian Cold

December Wheat futures are extending their recent gains today, up already more than 12% this month with its biggest gain monthly gain since March. December Wheat futures are currently up .09 cents at $5.3975 per bushel. An agriculture weather group reportedly wrote in a report today that lower temperatures in wheat growing regions in Russia are expected to stump the growth of up to two-thirds of the Russian crop – ultimately pushing the wheat crop into winter dormancy. The temperatures are working against further wheat growth along with 60% less than normal rainfall in most of the growing region this past month. Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating today, “The wheat (futures) market is finding technical support of large fund short position with all contracts trading above the 50-day moving averages. Concerns about dry and cold conditions in Russia winter what regions and dry conditions in Australia are seen mildly supportive for the wheat’s.” The trend for wheat futures has newly emerged as up. I am only interested in taking the “long” signals at this points and expect this trend to last into the end of the year, or beginning of the next. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Livestock Feed Demand Boosts Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have quickly rebounded this month to prices not seen since late August on the outlook of “feed demand” rising from domestic livestock and poultry producers. Soybean futures have since backed-off their highs by .25c already this morning currently trading at $10.16 per bushel, and soybean meal futures have given-up their entire gains at this time, currently “unchanged” from yesterday’s close after giving-up $22 per ton from its highs. Yesterday’s spectacular soybean meal futures 7.6% gain – a one-day rise not seen since 2007 – is a reflection of the need for livestock feed in an attempt to meet demand. Currently it is reported the US railways are tied up with much energy products being delivered around the country which means some livestock producers could potentially be delayed in receiving feed for their animals. Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating today, “The grain producers, especially (of) soybeans, are feeling the effects of increased competition from the emerging energy producers in the U.S.” Medina added, “Prior to the boom of natural gas in the U.S., grain producers could easily move their products after harvest, that has all changed now and with a record harvest in grains, railways have the upper hand and will price out their services to the highest bidder.” Soybean futures have made a complete turn-around in trend this past month. We have already exited our long soybean futures position this morning when it was realized the market couldn’t hold its gains. This is a newly developed up-trend and...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  None at this time. DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, British Pound, Euro-currency, Copper, Natural Gas, Soybean Oil, and Crude Oil ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...