Grain Futures May Be Seeing Valuation Buying

Both corn futures and wheat futures may be experiencing buying demand from their recent lows at what may be considered bargain prices from the last six months. Both grain futures began the day extending their gains from the last couple of days, but have since turned lower to close down for the day at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures fell to nearly $3.62 per bushel Tuesday which is its lowest level since early March and is down about 2% this month. Wheat futures saw a contract low of $4.6375 on Tuesday with favorable forecasts in the key wheat growing regions, and this market is on track to have dropped 5% this month. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis regarding the current grain futures situation by stating, “With plenty of inventory, favorable weather, and planting well ahead of being on track, we can expect more downside action.” Craney adds, “I just can’t imagine a scenario to make these two grain markets bullish anytime soon…” Corn futures and wheat futures are clearly down with no bottom yet in sight. Looking for a retracement higher in these grain markets before getting on-board the short side. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

New Highs For Crude Oil After Weekly US Supply Data

Crude Oil futures are up $2.12 per barrel today to highs not seen since December after inventory data revealed domestic oil supplies rose to levels less than expected last week. Crude oil futures are currently trading just above $59 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories increased by 1.9M barrels in the week ending April 24th, falling short of the expectations for an increase of 2.3M barrels. As it stands now, domestic oil inventories total nearly 491M barrels which is the most in 80 years – even drilling activity waning! Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis regarding the current crude oil futures situation by stating, “The current rally in crude oil (futures) has the look and feel of a relief rally after falling too fast and too low.” Riordan adds, “Eventually the fundamental situation of supply and demand will catch-up with the markets.” The trend for crude oil is up and with new highs breaking out today there is no top yet in sight. We’re seeing the repercussions of higher oil prices at the pump – already a dollar higher per gallon from the lows. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Wheat Futures Fall to Seven Month Lows

Wheat futures fell today to prices not seen since late September following the USDA’s report yesterday of spring wheat planting progress. Wheat futures later turned up for the day to close just over .03 higher at $4.765 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The USDA is reporting rapid planting throughout the Midwest last week which was anticipated in yesterday’s .15c drop. They have 55% of the spring wheat crop planted as of Sunday, which is 36% higher then the preceding week with 42% of the wheat crop rated good to excellent condition. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, “The farmers are really taking advantage of the good weather while they have it.” Plotkin adds, “Looks like they are way ahead of schedule as only 17% of the wheat crop was planted this time last year, with the five-year average being 29% – so they’re looking good.” Wheat futures trend is down with no bottom left in sight. In the next rally higher I think we should see wheat futures trend lower if/when September’s lows fail. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Russell 2000 Index & Corn (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Euro-FX, Soymeal, Natural Gas, and Kansas Wheat, Soybeans & Corn (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Less Acreage Planted Up North a Boost for Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have rallied today when our friends from up north in Canada have reported their planting intentions. With world inventories left at glut levels, soybean futures have found support as late as early April at a price near $9.47 per bushel, and Canada’s news to plant less soybeans is proving to be a resistance finder. Canadian farmers were polled (11,500 participating) between March 18th through the 25th and the study found less acres intended for soybeans. Last year, Canada dedicated a record amount of acreage for soybeans, but this year it will decrease by 3.4%, and this mainly comes from two provinces – Ontario & Quebec. Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating, “Soybean (futures) were oversold and this is the type of news that can spur short-covering.” Evans adds, “Now what will it take for soybeans to sustain its rally?” The trend for soybean futures remains down despite the .42 cent rally from the lows only two weeks ago. Soybean futures should still have a test of its low forthcoming… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...