Cattle Futures Climb as USA & Brazil Open Beef Trade

Cattle futures (feeders) have climbed over $12 (per cwt) in the past two weeks amid US & Brazil exchanging food safety documents to open beef trade. Feeder cattle futures are up $1.05 cent today currently trading at $145.80 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Just yesterday both governments reportedly food safety equivalence documents that is expected to open their respective markets to fresh beef exports – a boon for Brazil with $900M expected to boost that industry. Right now Brazil only exports beef from one part of the country, but this agreement opens up their whole country for exports and will be -by far- the world’s largest beef exporter. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “Once the tee’s are crossed and the eiye’s dotted it could be a matter of 90 days before the US sees Brazilian beef exports come our way.” Brady adds, “There is speculation as much as 60,000 tons of imported beef could enter the country this year.” The technical trend for cattle futures has recently emerged “up,” but for how long? Cattle futures continue to trade above $1.00 a pound which was unheard of only a decade ago, and with more beef in supply we may see a slide even lower as time passes – which will be a win for consumers. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS...

Hog Futures Resume Sell-Off With Pork Producers Facing Losses

Hog futures continues its retreat down for the ninth out of eleven trading sessions as news is learned that reportedly domestic hog producers are poised for a minimum of six months of operating in the red. Hog futures are down $0.60 per cwt today currently trading at $83.375 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “Breakeven” may be the best hope for hog producers in the second quarter next year if a University of Illinois professor is correct on his assessment. He believes animal prices per head will fall from an $8 profit to a $19 loss taking into consideration feed prices follow the expectations of the current futures prices curve – and this doesn’t take into account any interruption in the world economy following the Brexit situation. “If Brexit does slow world income growth, that could be negative for global sales of pork and other US agricultural products,” said Chris Hurt, professor at the University of Illinois, sharing his fundamental assessment of the hog futures market. Hurt added, “Brexit gives our biggest global pork competitor a sizable and immediate price advantage.” Hog futures trend has only recently turned “down” from the $90+ highs only two weeks ago. I would expect some type of bounce in the hog futures market in the next week, but if Professor Hurt is correct on his assessment, we may see a longer-term downtrend ahead. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU...

Cattle Futures at Contract Lows, Once Again

Cattle futures prices have sunk $10 within a two week period this month amid ample beef supplies and sporadic demand. Cattle futures have bounced higher a second day, albeit up .20c currently trading near $115.25 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Beef prices for both cattle contracts (“live cattle futures” – animals ready for market, and “feeder cattle futures” – animals transitioning from pasture to feedlot for fattening) are equally under selling scrutiny because of much overall supplies with only sluggish domestic demand and exports. The outlook ahead is expected to reveal even more animals working their way to feedlots for near-term marketing. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the cattle futures markets by stating, “The cattle (futures) market appears to be at a major crossroad with near-term direction.” Bourbeau adds, “The sudden drop in feed prices recently has helped support cattle futures only little.” The trend in cattle futures is down with lower lows made Monday, late April, & mid-December, so a possible bottom could be near, or a major breakout lower may be right around the corner. Cattle futures prices, although at multi-year lows, are still historically high well over $1.00 per pound. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Rally in Commodity Futures Markets ‘Still in Early Stages,’ Says Leading Expert

Last week leading commodity futures trading analyst David Hightower told the Agrimoney Investment Forum that this current rally in the overall agricultural markets are still in their early stages due to demand coming from emerging countries. Overall, all grain futures and livestock markets are in up-trends at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, except for cattle futures. Hightower believes the costs of commodity production have been suppressed for the last six months to a year and can’t be kept down much longer. Even though the commodities index has risen over 12% this year, he claims they remain well below historic highs. David Hightower, founder of the influential “Hightower Report” from Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the agricultural futures markets by stating, “We are much closer to the bottom for commodity prices than to a high.” Hightower adds, “If you think you have missed the commodities move – think again.” After reaching significant highs earlier in the month, agricultural commodity futures have pulled-back significantly enough to start looking for entry signals to the buy side for at least a test of recent highs. Cattle futures, however, continue to trend in the opposite position while hog futures recently extended their gains. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Hog Futures Extend Rally on China’s Pork Buying

Hog futures have extended their recent gains today on news of decreased Chinese pork output. Hog futures are up $2.17 today currently trading at $90.00 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Farmers in China reportedly decided to cull their herds thereby shrinking pork output as corn costs to feed their animals became too expensive. This has caused a rollover effect for more pork imports which has been estimated to be as much as 5% of US production this year. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the hog futures market by stating, “China’s insatiable demand for pork runs deep in their culture.” Brady adds, “This comes at a time when the piglet-killing disease two years ago forced domestic culling and we’re trying to rebuild our domestic herds.” Hog futures have resumed their uptrend only recently. There is no top in sight for this market so expect prices to be passed on to the consumer. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Chinese Meat Demand Boosts Chicken Prices

The quest for protein sources in China have shifted from beef, to pork, and now reportedly to chicken from foreign sources to keep pace with their poultry demand. Chicken (spot) prices have been trading near $1.115 per pound which is down about .045c from just last year at this time when prices were at a multi-year high at the Georgia docks. A year and a half ago, China banned the imports of white broiler chicken meat from the US due to bird-flu concerns – the US providing 90% of China’s supply. China then turned to France for its chicken meat imports, but bird-flu concerns reportedly halted trade with that country and then turned to New Zealand and most recently Thailand. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the chicken broiler market by stating, “Chicken prices in Thailand are said to be up a significant 7% in over the past week due to China’s tender.” Plotkin adds, “This pick-up in demand is most likely a reaction attributed to China’s reported 20% supply reduction due to breeding stock trade restrictions.” The trend for chicken prices have been up steadily for the past four years from .86c per pound in April 2011 until June 2015 – topping out at $1.16 wholesale. Since this time last year, chicken prices have retreated back to $1.12 where they are today. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS...