by Brian Schad | Aug 2, 2016 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures (feeders) have climbed over $12 (per cwt) in the past two weeks amid US & Brazil exchanging food safety documents to open beef trade. Feeder cattle futures are up $1.05 cent today currently trading at $145.80 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Just yesterday both governments reportedly food safety equivalence documents that is expected to open their respective markets to fresh beef exports – a boon for Brazil with $900M expected to boost that industry. Right now Brazil only exports beef from one part of the country, but this agreement opens up their whole country for exports and will be -by far- the world’s largest beef exporter. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “Once the tee’s are crossed and the eiye’s dotted it could be a matter of 90 days before the US sees Brazilian beef exports come our way.” Brady adds, “There is speculation as much as 60,000 tons of imported beef could enter the country this year.” The technical trend for cattle futures has recently emerged “up,” but for how long? Cattle futures continue to trade above $1.00 a pound which was unheard of only a decade ago, and with more beef in supply we may see a slide even lower as time passes – which will be a win for consumers. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS...
by Brian Schad | Jun 22, 2016 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures prices have sunk $10 within a two week period this month amid ample beef supplies and sporadic demand. Cattle futures have bounced higher a second day, albeit up .20c currently trading near $115.25 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Beef prices for both cattle contracts (“live cattle futures” – animals ready for market, and “feeder cattle futures” – animals transitioning from pasture to feedlot for fattening) are equally under selling scrutiny because of much overall supplies with only sluggish domestic demand and exports. The outlook ahead is expected to reveal even more animals working their way to feedlots for near-term marketing. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the cattle futures markets by stating, “The cattle (futures) market appears to be at a major crossroad with near-term direction.” Bourbeau adds, “The sudden drop in feed prices recently has helped support cattle futures only little.” The trend in cattle futures is down with lower lows made Monday, late April, & mid-December, so a possible bottom could be near, or a major breakout lower may be right around the corner. Cattle futures prices, although at multi-year lows, are still historically high well over $1.00 per pound. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Apr 20, 2016 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures are lower across the board today as US agriculture officials suggest exports, rather than domestic demand, offer the industries brightest prospects. June live cattle futures ended the day down $1.52 trading at $117.05 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The USDA acknowledged the seasonal tendency for beef prices this time of year with barbecue season on the rise, but on the other hand they also stated “both supply and demand fundamentals are bearish for the beef complex.” Recent beef output is shown to be up 4% year-on-year, and also contributing to the bearish outlook the number of cattle slaughtered up 2.5%. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “The cattle (futures) market was in bad shape coming into the year, and what rallies we have seen have been short-lived.” Plotkin adds, “This (cattle futures) market can sure use increased exports as its fast approaching last year’s low with cattle on feed report reflecting 100.8% last month versus 100.9% of all last year.” Cattle futures trend is clearly “down” with no bottom yet in sight (in my studies). Cattle futures should find support another dollar (per pound) lower, but in the meantime maybe we can all benefit by getting the grill in use a little early this year and take advantage of the falling beef prices. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS...
by Brian Schad | Mar 29, 2016 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures have seen values rise since the February low due to domestic beef consumption expected to be on the rise. June cattle futures, however, are “unchanged” for the day currently trading at $125.52 (per cwt) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The USDA reportedly says Americans are set to consume 54.3lbs of red meat this year – almost one-half pound more than last year – which will be the first increase seen since 2006. Just two years earlier, the US cattle-herd was the lowest in six-decades after prolonged drought in the south and southwest forced ranchers to curb their herds and sent beef prices soaring. Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “The pendulum does swing the other way.” Levy adds, “Cattle (futures) prices were so high ranchers did everything they could to add on to their herd, which has ultimately added to supply.” Cattle futures trend, albeit technically up at this time, are at a crossroads. If the June Cattle futures contract were to take out Thursday’s low (124.32) without heading back up to the 127.00 benchmark first, then that would change the trend to down. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Mar 1, 2016 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Cattle futures are slightly higher on the news South Africa’s worst drought in over a century has damaged more than 5% of the nation’s cattle herd (plus pork breeding herds). Cattle futures are up .17 cents today currently trading at $137.15 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The cattle head-count before the drought was reportedly 13M head, but after the El Nino weather pattern set in it prompted the the least amount of rainfall in South Africa since 1904 – effectively wiping out the crops and grazing there. According to the nation’s largest farmers’ lobbying group, corn, wheat, sugar, livestock, have all been adversely affected and if rains don’t come soon, then the citrus crops are threatened with longer-term damage. “The drought in South Africa is seriously hurting manufacturing, farming output, and overall growth with one in a reported four there out of work,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the cattle futures market. Craney added, “South Africa is Africa’s second largest economy but its annualized growth rate was a mere six-tenths of one percent last quarter.” Cattle futures trend is up as of last week. Looking at a chart for cattle futures it has, however, been trading sideways since mid-December so I expect something’s got to give soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Dec 16, 2015 | Cattle Futures, Livestock Futures
Live cattle futures ended the day lower after the USDA issued a statement saying “depressed prices are expected to carry into 2016.” Live cattle futures ended down $1.025 per pound today settling near $124.50 per CWT at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The pendulum does swing the other way as just last year it was the feedlots and packers making the money from high beef prices, but now the retailers are finally being handed significant margin opportunities due to beef market dynamics and cattle prices near three-year lows. This downgrade from the USDA was just issued last week when the statement was made for the benchmark fed steer values.. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the cattle futures market by stating, “Beef prices (cattle futures) have been steadily working its way downward since summer, but accelerated lower in early November.” Brady adds, “Hopefully a strong US Dollar will help boost needed beef exports to stabilize this market.” Cattle futures trend is down with no bottom in sight. Cattle futures are supposed to “predict” where beef prices are headed, so this is a plus for consumers as well as families. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
Recent Comments