Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas and Russell 2000 Index DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, British Pound and Cocoa, Lean Hogs & CBT Wheat (These three new this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Current Global Grain Market Shines on US Wheat Futures

Wheat futures may be getting a boost today from a report I read regarding Europe’s wheat production challenges a possible boon for the American farmer in the foreseeable future. Wheat futures are up .01 cent today currently trading at $4.16 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. This past week it was observed by a commodity trading professional that Europe seems to have a double-whammy problem of “quality problems” over a broad area and talk from across the pond that the yield isn’t as quite good as expected. There is a very good possibility that some European business may be shifting to the United States. Jim Bower, of Bower Trading – a commodity futures specialty firm, shared his fundamental view of the wheat futures market by stating, “I actually thought wheat acted halfway decent [this past week] because it seemed kind of to ignore bearish news.” Bower adds, “Now it may take a little while, but I think the worst is over in wheat.” Wheat futures trend is “down” with no bottom formation completely in sight. Wheat futures current low around the $4.07 level is currently being tested.. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Agricultural Commodity Futures Bullish Positions Cut by Funds

Hedge funds reportedly continue to cut their bullish positions to the longest extent this year, although the downside to the wheat futures markets may be limited if the commitment of traders weekly report is to be believed. The grain markets are mixed across the board today with soybeans and meal up for the day, while both wheat’s, corn and soy oil continue to lag at the Chicago Board of Trade. The commodity futures regulatory agency – the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – reports large speculators (or, managed money) reduced their long positions last week from the 13 most traded agricultural products from cattle to cotton by almost 57,000 contracts. This has been the fifth straight week big money has reduced their shorts and something we don’t see quite often – not since last summer anyway. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the agricultural commodity futures markets by stating, “After five weeks of reducing bullish bets, the amount of grain and other products in storage must be more than previously thought.” Taylor adds, “Only wheat futures appear to be closer to neutral.” All agricultural commodity futures we trade are in strong down-trends with an exception of the three New York food & fiber markets we trade – coffee, sugar, and cotton. It is going to take much fundamental change to turn things around, most likely, but consumers should be in for some relief after food prices spiked earlier this decade.. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Silver, Coffee, Natural Gas, Lumber and Russell 2000 Index (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle, Soy Oil British Pound and Euro-currency (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Lackluster Dairy Auction Results Sends Butter Prices Reeling

Butter futures took another trip south today spurred by dairy activity around the globe. Butter futures for September delivery are down $0.015 cents today currently trading at $0.236 per pound at the Chicago Board of Trade. While European dairy activity “appears” optimistic, the latest in a series of dismal GlobalDairyTrade actions in New Zealand suggests dairy prices are heading lower with butter futures leading the way. Although whole milk powder rose nearly 2% recently, the products that are made with it have seen losses. Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the butter futures market by stating, “The butter (futures) market was believed to be strong because of the strength of the European market and the reasonable demand for butter and cheese.” Craney adds, “In other areas of the world, such as on the Asian continent, the weak demand is helping to shift prices lower.” The trend for butter futures has been sideways to down at best since a significant rally in mid-June. What butter futures prices are doing to the dairy farmer may be a boon to us consumers. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...