Rally in Commodity Futures Markets ‘Still in Early Stages,’ Says Leading Expert

Last week leading commodity futures trading analyst David Hightower told the Agrimoney Investment Forum that this current rally in the overall agricultural markets are still in their early stages due to demand coming from emerging countries. Overall, all grain futures and livestock markets are in up-trends at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, except for cattle futures. Hightower believes the costs of commodity production have been suppressed for the last six months to a year and can’t be kept down much longer. Even though the commodities index has risen over 12% this year, he claims they remain well below historic highs. David Hightower, founder of the influential “Hightower Report” from Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the agricultural futures markets by stating, “We are much closer to the bottom for commodity prices than to a high.” Hightower adds, “If you think you have missed the commodities move – think again.” After reaching significant highs earlier in the month, agricultural commodity futures have pulled-back significantly enough to start looking for entry signals to the buy side for at least a test of recent highs. Cattle futures, however, continue to trend in the opposite position while hog futures recently extended their gains. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

China’s Commodity Futures Markets Put Stocks in the Backseat

China’s formidable $5.9 trillion stock market has been left in the dust recently as Chinese speculation has been giving global raw commodity markets one heck of a ride this past month or so. Metal futures, food & fiber futures, and grains have all turned up with trends from being stagnant since early 2015. Everything from eggs, to cotton…even steel rebar has been surging as the speculation bug in China has been catching on. There is no joke when mentioning “eggs” because when compared to the stock market, the dairy staple has indeed been a better investment in China with egg futures climbing 27% so far this year. Mark Mobius, executive chairman for the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, shared his fundamental view of the Chinese commodity futures market by stating, “We have already seen how both commodity prices and the commodity stock prices went down too far, beyond realistic assessments.” Mobius adds, “We can now expect movement on the upside to be extreme in percentage terms.” The trends for most of the commodity futures markets has turned up with the exception of cattle futures and coffee. With the dizzying speculation going on in China’s commodity futures markets, it seems only a matter of time before these markets are discovered too. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar & S&P 500 Index (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle, Euro-Currency, Soymeal & 10yr. T-Notes (All new this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar (New this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index, Crude Oil and Coffee ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Commodity Prices Crashing to 13-Year Lows

The bench-mark “Bloomberg Commodity Index” has been in freefall for the fifth-day in a row now, which is reportedly the biggest stretch of declines since March. Yesterday the commodity index dropped a reported 1.1% alone with the help of a strengthening dollar and the perceived agreement for higher interest-rates forthcoming.. Gold only yesterday spiraled lower to five-year lows, but not just that market – Brent crude oil, industrial metals, natural gas, and even some agricultural products have been part of this rout in commodity prices. A strong dollar means higher costs for importers commodities, while higher interest-rates make borrowing costs unattractive for anybody. “With the Federal Reserve Chairwoman clearly signaling a hike in interest-rates soon, rather than later, it’s economics 101 for investors to sell assets and hold onto whatever gains or cash they have on hand,” said Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the commodity futures markets. Evans added, “The strength of the US Dollar makes lower raw materials costs a slam dunk.” More than one-half of the markets I trade (all agricultural markets) are in down-trends, or have recently rolled over into down-trends. The few that are still “up” are all at a crossroads, so, time for traders to accept lower commodity futures prices ahead. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Grain Futures Post USDA Report Re-cap

Grain futures realized an initial boost in prices after Friday’s USDA crop production report, but have since cooled-off and returned to report day prices, and in the case of wheat futures, Kansas Wheat has since retreated even lower. All grain futures are down for the day between .02 to .09 cents for the day at the Chicago Board of Trade.. The USDA revised domestic corn inventories significantly lower for the 2014-15 season – almost 100M bushels lower. US soybean stocks revised down 75M bushels, and wheat reserves at the end of the 2015-16 season revised upward by 28M bushels. “It looks like we’re seeing the grain futures markets reflecting these revisions with current activity,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the grain futures markets. Medina added, “All grain markets may appear in strong uptrends now, but as we go into corn and soybean harvest the picture can be much different.” As mentioned above, the grain markets are all in uptrends that emerged and accelerated without any significant pull-back – all based on a weather related outlook. From what I understand the weather is changing with milder temperatures and the Midwest is getting all the rain the crops need to flourish. Maybe its time to reassess the grain market’s uptrend so late in the season… ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF...