by Brian Schad | Aug 18, 2016 | Grain Futures, Grain Markets, Soybean Futures, Soybean Meal
Soybean futures appear to be selling-off today despite crop shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere where crushing plants in Brazil are reportedly cutting back and exports said to be high. Soybean futures are down .16 cents today currently trading at $10.00 even per bushel for November delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade. According to a University of Sao Paulo economic think-tank, despite soybean crop shortfalls Brazil’s soybean exports this year have surpassed those from last year at this time to a record 44.35M metric tons. Soybean meal compared to this same time last year have reportedly risen 8.7%, they also claim. “Part of the reason for reduced crush demand in Brazil is is said to be due to eroding demand from their poultry industry,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Craney added, “Reports of Cargill and another prominent soybean crusher stopped the processing of soybeans reportedly due to lack of demand.” Soybean futures trend had been technically “down” until today’s trading session. When and if soybean futures take out today’s high before any sustained trading below $9.84 over the next week occur, this may change the course of the trend to up. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Jul 7, 2016 | Grain Futures, Grain Markets, Soybean Futures
Soybean futures continue to spiral lower losing more than 10% this week (so far) as La Nina probabilities subside with favorable weather prospects, prompting holders of long positions to scramble. Soybean futures are down over .50 cents today currently trading at $10.23 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. Assisting the liquidation of long positions of both futures & options were also key support levels taken out over the past three to four weeks causing soybeans to drop about 5% alone. Today marks the first close below the 10-week moving average for soybeans since early March. “We’re seeing the typical hesitation to buy, rush to sell mode by traders when weather is involved,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Taylor added, “But don’t rule out La Nina just yet because the weatherman is saying it could be delayed until September.” The trend for soybean futures is “down” (in my study of daily charts) as of today’s .50 cent move lower. Before hoping aboard the soybean futures sinking ship, I would consider a technical bounce higher and utilizing soybean options as a hedge. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Jun 15, 2016 | Grain Complex, Soybean Futures, Soybean Meal
Soymeal futures are up today amid continued buying of the soy-based byproduct in order to feed their pig-population – which happens to reportedly be about 50% of the world’s pork population. Soymeal futures are currently “up” $1.4 per ton today currently trading at $410 per ton at the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal prices in China are said to be up 40% with the volume of soymeal contracts continuing to expand with the animal feed trading in more hands there in a single day than the US consumes in an entire year – completely dominating the Chicago Board of Trade! Also contributing to the demand in soymeal is the fact that dry-weather and flooding in the Southern Hemisphere continue to threaten global supplies of soybeans which are crushed to produce both soybean oil and soymeal used to feed livestock animals. Monica Tu, a Shanghai-based analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., who specializes in the soy market, shared her fundamental view of the soymeal futures market by stating, “Downstream users and traders in China have previously kept low stockpiles of soymeal on the expectation of weak demand and prices.” Tu adds, “In recent months, they had to amend their views and restore inventories, supporting solid gains in futures.” The trend for soymeal futures is up, however, with a short-term top in sight. There has not been any type of significant pull-back in this market and we are due for one, but I would expect continued strength in soymeal futures into summer. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK...
by Brian Schad | May 26, 2016 | Grain Futures, Grain Markets, Soybean Futures, Soybean Meal
Soymeal futures reached their highest prices in over a year and a half due to the outlook for Argentina’s supply (the world’s biggest soymeal exporter) and tightening supplies here in the US. Today soymeal futures extended their gains to nearly $420 per ton and are currently up $5 for the day trading at $412.20 at the Chicago Board of Trade. Aside from Argentina’s soybean disruption, soymeal production here in the US is reportedly being disrupted due to at least two processing plants temporarily closed for seasonal maintenance. Soymeal is a preferred high-protein animal feed used for livestock all over the world. Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the soymeal futures market by stating, “There is both a Northern & Southern Hemisphere source for soybean bi-products, but with reported wide-spread flooding damaging the soybean crop in Argentina, the global supplies for soybean usage is threatened.” Bourbeau adds, “A lesser soybean harvest simply threatens meeting global demands for the products it produces.” Soymeal futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I am seeing in my studies of soybean and soymeal futures the market is leaving little room for complacency when deciding when to “get in” these futures markets. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | May 11, 2016 | Grain Futures, Grain Markets, Soybean Futures
Soybean futures gained as much as .65c per bushel yesterday following the USDA’s forecast of falling domestic and world stocks, plus heavy domestic crushing volumes and lower South American production. Today soybean futures backed off just over a nickel to close near $10.79 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. There were several sections of reports released yesterday concerning soybeans such as, world grain stocks for the end of this current fiscal season, the May ’16 global supply demand report, and an update of its forecast for soybean stocks for the next season. This season coming to a close the USDA forecasts stocks to be 74.25M tons – 3M tons less than last month’s forecast, and 2M tons less than the analysts were forecasting – and next season they expect stocks to be down to 68.21M tons – a three-year low and nearly 5M tons below expectations. “With the sudden Chinese buying spree of recent, and the surprise soybean market numbers from yesterday, the market may have been taken off-guard,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Plotkin added, “It appears as if a classic case of demand outpacing supply may be in the works for the soybean (futures) market…we’ve only begun the summer rallying season.” Soybean futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. Soybean futures may be realizing key resistance at this time, but higher prices may easily be seen after the coming dips in the marketplace. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A...
by Brian Schad | Apr 13, 2016 | Grain Complex, Grain Futures, Soybean Futures
Grain futures are thumbing their nose at glut supplies with their recent rally not seen in months, and its all about China’s demand outlook. Grain futures are up all across the board with soybean futures up another .20 cents trading just over $9.56 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. It was only yesterday the USDA monthly crop production report was released forecasting even more global grains inventories, but China’s perceived economic situation is what grain traders are focusing on right now. Just when we thought corn futures were on their way down, they made new highs for the year today, and soybean futures are at their highest since August. “With the grain (futures) markets recent spike, I’d say this is a show of confidence on a global scale,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the grain futures market. Levy added, “…and with ‘La Nina’ weather conditions right around the corner, this could be just the start of higher markets to come by early Summer.” The grain markets trends are mixed at this time – soybean futures in a newly emerged up-trend, corn futures being revived from contract lows, and wheat futures still in a technical down-trend. I would consider awaiting the dust to settle in these grain futures markets and hopefully a dip to be a buyer before jumping on this high-speed train. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER...
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