by Brian Schad | Aug 24, 2016 | Agricultural Futures, Agricultural Markets, Cotton Futures
Cotton futures continue to tank from their earlier August high above .78c now that the news is out about West African cotton production to surge. Cotton futures are down .43 cents today currently trading at $0.6801 per pound for December delivery at New York’s Intercontinental Exchange. Last week the USDA announced from their Dakar-bureau that West African cotton production – formerly damaged last growing season by weather – is prepared to bounce back. Cotton production in the growing regions for the 2016-17 season is believed to reach 24% more than production for last year’s season. “The beginning of the 2016-17 cotton planting campaign started well with enough rains,” said an USDA official, from a bureau in West Africa, sharing their fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. The USDA added, “In mid-July, 90 percent of the forecasted area had been sowed.” Earlier this month cotton futures had been in a strong up-trend, but a week and a half ago it has rolled over to “down” as the trend remains. With news such as this coming out against cotton futures, it will take much to change the direction. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Jul 6, 2016 | Agricultural Futures, Agricultural Markets, Cotton Futures
Cotton futures have been “coiling” in price the last couple of weeks even as the Int’l Cotton Advisory Committee (“ICAC”) boosted hopes for the price outlook due to less production. Cotton futures are down $0.03 cents today currently trading at $65.18 per pound at the New York Intercontinental Exchange. The ICAC determined by the “Cotlook A Index” that global cotton prices for 2016-17 will be boosted by .02 cents a pound to an average .72 cents per pound – compared to last season’s average of .70/lbs. Part of this rise in cotton prices is due to a 5% reduction (year-to-year) in global cotton stocks by 200T tons. “Much cotton (futures) information to digest as even China is reportedly importing 8% less in the foreseeable future due to their governmental efforts to reduce the inventory of cotton there,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. Craney added, “Imports outside of China are said to increase by 3%, however.” Cotton futures trend is “up” technically, however, more at a stand still for the past month. A breakout with two consecutive closes above 65.50 could extend the rally, but sustained trading below the 64.50 level could change the trend in this mixed signals cotton futures market. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | May 17, 2016 | Agricultural Futures, Agricultural Markets, Cotton Futures
Cotton futures are experiencing a technical rally as all 15 major producing states report a total of 40% of domestic cotton now planted. Cotton futures are up .015c today currently trading at .6249 cents per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York. Forty-percent planted is right on target for this time of year based on the previous five-year average, and the states leading the planting are Arizona (99% planted); California (82%); Arkansas & Louisiana (both 79%); and Missouri (71%). The states still behind the eight-ball are Kansas (6%); Texas (18%); Oklahoma (23%); North Carolina (36%); and Georgia (37%). “The cotton planting is chugging along as farmers are reportedly asking the EPA to be more decisive with their requests for pesticides to help remove a major insect pest,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. Taylor added, “The farmers are trying to prevent losses estimated to be about $90 per acre without insect protection.” Cotton futures trend has technically rolled over to “down” in my study just last week. This technical rally in cotton futures could possibly be sustained if the EPA stalls with an affirmative decision soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | May 5, 2016 | Cotton Futures
Cotton futures are finding support today after the Int’l Cotton Advisory Committee announced an expectation for Chinese cotton stocks to fall to a five-year low once the government auctions off its sizable reserves. Cotton futures are down 70 points today currently trading at .6208 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York. The Chinese government made this decision reportedly because of falling domestic production brought on by declining Chinese demand, and a sharp decline in imports. The Int’l Cotton Advisory Committee says they expect Chinese inventory to drop by 7% this fiscal year, and another 10% next fiscal year. “China had been holding and hoarding cotton in an effort to fix global prices and this is said to have been weighing on global markets,” said Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. Bourbeau added, “This massive dump of inventory should shake-up the cotton (futures) market pretty good.” Cotton futures trend is up with the market looking as if its finding resistance at 4th quarter 2015 previous highs. Cotton futures may be adjusting for this forthcoming cotton auction in China. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Apr 5, 2016 | Cotton Futures
Cotton futures have recently digested some bearish news of domestic sowings and exports, but it hasn’t been enough apparently to significantly take this market down. Cotton futures ended down six points today to settle at .5890 in today’s trading at the InterContinental Exchange in New York. News coming from the USDA last Thursday revealed doubts that US farmers will manage the near 1M acres increase for cotton sowings according to a farmer’s survey. In addition, there is wetness in major growing areas which is raising the doubts farmers will realize the the plantings they’re hoping for. “Cotton (futures) prices seem to be defying the fundamental assessment – in my opinion – with upland cotton exports nearly one-half of what the national average is of the prior four weeks,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. Plotkin added, “Plus, adverse weather is currently hampering field preparation and early plantings in the Mississippi Delta region and other southern states.” Cotton futures trend has recently turned “up” albeit with little follow-through. Cotton futures (for May delivery) have rallied a nickel since the February 29th low and still appear to be strong. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Mar 3, 2016 | Cotton Futures
Cotton futures traders are learning yield recoveries will be the catalyst for some recovery in global production next season, rather than extended growing areas – according to the Int’l Cotton Advisory Committee. Cotton futures are up 43 points today currently trading at .5636 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange. Apparently it was adverse weather and “pest problems” in many of the cotton growing countries that was responsible for last year’s 7% decrease per hectare. The yield rebound is particularly expected to take place in Pakistan where the last harvest was especially plagued by whitefly – responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars of agri-economic losses. “With competing crop prices falling so low, and cotton prices remaining comparably stable, we should also see some sort of pick-up with farmers planting more cotton,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. Brady added, “Perhaps the whitefly helped keep cotton prices stable, but this next season we could see an acceleration of lower cotton prices if there is indeed a pick-up in acreage.” Cotton futures trend is “down” with no bottom yet in sight. New cotton futures lows were made on Monday, and with the lack of follow-through to the downside perhaps we can see a technical rally before the next leg down. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
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