by Brian Schad | Jun 29, 2016 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Hog futures continues its retreat down for the ninth out of eleven trading sessions as news is learned that reportedly domestic hog producers are poised for a minimum of six months of operating in the red. Hog futures are down $0.60 per cwt today currently trading at $83.375 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “Breakeven” may be the best hope for hog producers in the second quarter next year if a University of Illinois professor is correct on his assessment. He believes animal prices per head will fall from an $8 profit to a $19 loss taking into consideration feed prices follow the expectations of the current futures prices curve – and this doesn’t take into account any interruption in the world economy following the Brexit situation. “If Brexit does slow world income growth, that could be negative for global sales of pork and other US agricultural products,” said Chris Hurt, professor at the University of Illinois, sharing his fundamental assessment of the hog futures market. Hurt added, “Brexit gives our biggest global pork competitor a sizable and immediate price advantage.” Hog futures trend has only recently turned “down” from the $90+ highs only two weeks ago. I would expect some type of bounce in the hog futures market in the next week, but if Professor Hurt is correct on his assessment, we may see a longer-term downtrend ahead. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU...
by Brian Schad | Jun 14, 2016 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Hog futures have extended their recent gains today on news of decreased Chinese pork output. Hog futures are up $2.17 today currently trading at $90.00 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Farmers in China reportedly decided to cull their herds thereby shrinking pork output as corn costs to feed their animals became too expensive. This has caused a rollover effect for more pork imports which has been estimated to be as much as 5% of US production this year. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the hog futures market by stating, “China’s insatiable demand for pork runs deep in their culture.” Brady adds, “This comes at a time when the piglet-killing disease two years ago forced domestic culling and we’re trying to rebuild our domestic herds.” Hog futures have resumed their uptrend only recently. There is no top in sight for this market so expect prices to be passed on to the consumer. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Mar 17, 2016 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Hog futures are little changed today as a prominent French bank declares pork the meat with the most upside potential as US consumers seek more affordability with meats. Hog futures for June delivery are down .30 cents currently trading at $83.45 per cwt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Despite increasing pork supplies, the bullish outlook remains strong with pork production up 1% so far this year. Hog supplies are recovering from the outbreak of the virus which killed-off much of the animals only a couple of years ago, and the amount of pork in cold supply are also reportedly high. Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental view of the hog futures market by stating, “Although we’ve seen hogs rally since the beginning of the year, pork prices remain historically low-priced compared to beef prices.” Brady adds, “For thrift-saving Americans, pork is poised to take over domestic market share.” The trend for hog futures is up with highs made just this time last week. Hog futures do remain strong, however, some type of technical pullback seems to be in order soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Jan 20, 2016 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Hog futures newfound strength may be tied with what is going on with the pork industry in the European Union – a decade low feed demand poised for another significant decline. Hog futures are down .42 cents today currently trading at $67.30 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There is reportedly a contraction happening in the EU pork industry in part by Russia banning imports which is helping to cause compound feed used by pig farmers to be expected to drop 2-3% this year. Hog prices in the EU – according to the government’s reference price – touched a 10-year low of E126.02 per kilogram just last month. “While the European Union continues to see hog (futures) prices falling, here in Chicago a support-base had been made between mid-November to mid-December and has been rallying since,” said Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the hog futures market. Bourbeau added, “This reflection in demand can only mean one thing: our US hog (futures) market is preferred over the EU pork industry.” Hog futures trend is up since early this month. This could be a technical bounce for hog futures in an overall down-trend, but right now pork prices are in the middle of six-month highs and lows. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Oct 29, 2015 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Lean hog futures have made an astounding free-fall lower over the last seven trading sessions after a health warning pertaining to processed meats was publicized in the media earlier this week. Hog futures are down another $1.77 per pound currently trading at $59.62 per CWT at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Hog futures were trading near $69 only last week, but the sudden drop in price is because of the perceived potential reaction to demand which has sent prices down almost $10 in such a short period of time. There are other circumstances that are attributed to the early decline of hogs such as a weaker domestic cash market, and USDA data showing record cold-storage pork inventories last month. “After multi-month highs the hog (futures) market has been hit with a triple whammy,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the hog futures market. Medina adds, “The ‘trend is your friend until the end’ saying applies here as it looks like speculators and fund managers have just stopped buying.” The trend for hog futures has just rolled over to “down” today in my work. Before professionals can do anything with this hog futures market it might require some sort of temporary relief rally happening first – keep away from the free-falling dagger. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...
by Brian Schad | Sep 8, 2015 | Hog Fututres, Livestock Futures
Hog futures should be finding solid support as news of China’s culling of their sow hog-herd by 19% is predicted to provide support to the global pork industry for some time to come. Hog futures are actually down .20 cents per pound today currently trading at $68.95 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The culling of the Chinese herd over the past year and a half has been recognized as one of the biggest in history and, get this, said to be equivalent to the loss of the more recent Canadian, Mexican, and US herd culling – combined! The effect of this action in China is now apparent in the global pork industry with tightened pork supplies and higher prices. Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, had this to say regarding the fundamental assessment of the hog futures markets, “As news spread about this event, over the past two months the near-by hog futures contract has risen by $10 (CWT) a pound.” Plotkin adds, “Higher stable pork prices also positively affect the pork producer’s margins as well as recovery of the hog-to-corn price ratio for these producers. In the meantime, the hog herd rebuild is still clearly underway for the benefit of the consumers too.” Hog futures trend is technically up at this time, but looking at a bigger picture this market has actually been trading sideways since February. Hog futures could breakout to the upside with a sustained price move above $72, however, and if it happens it could be soon. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT...
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