Schad Commodity’s Monthly Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each month, usually on the first Friday evening, we’ll update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture: UP Trending Futures Markets: Crude Oil, High-Grade Copper, Coffee, S&P 500, British Pound, Euro-currency & Soy Oil DOWN Trending Futures Markets: US Dollar Index & Natural Gas ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Agricultural Commodity Futures Bullish Positions Cut by Funds

Hedge funds reportedly continue to cut their bullish positions to the longest extent this year, although the downside to the wheat futures markets may be limited if the commitment of traders weekly report is to be believed. The grain markets are mixed across the board today with soybeans and meal up for the day, while both wheat’s, corn and soy oil continue to lag at the Chicago Board of Trade. The commodity futures regulatory agency – the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – reports large speculators (or, managed money) reduced their long positions last week from the 13 most traded agricultural products from cattle to cotton by almost 57,000 contracts. This has been the fifth straight week big money has reduced their shorts and something we don’t see quite often – not since last summer anyway. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the agricultural commodity futures markets by stating, “After five weeks of reducing bullish bets, the amount of grain and other products in storage must be more than previously thought.” Taylor adds, “Only wheat futures appear to be closer to neutral.” All agricultural commodity futures we trade are in strong down-trends with an exception of the three New York food & fiber markets we trade – coffee, sugar, and cotton. It is going to take much fundamental change to turn things around, most likely, but consumers should be in for some relief after food prices spiked earlier this decade.. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF...

Rally in Commodity Futures Markets ‘Still in Early Stages,’ Says Leading Expert

Last week leading commodity futures trading analyst David Hightower told the Agrimoney Investment Forum that this current rally in the overall agricultural markets are still in their early stages due to demand coming from emerging countries. Overall, all grain futures and livestock markets are in up-trends at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, except for cattle futures. Hightower believes the costs of commodity production have been suppressed for the last six months to a year and can’t be kept down much longer. Even though the commodities index has risen over 12% this year, he claims they remain well below historic highs. David Hightower, founder of the influential “Hightower Report” from Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the agricultural futures markets by stating, “We are much closer to the bottom for commodity prices than to a high.” Hightower adds, “If you think you have missed the commodities move – think again.” After reaching significant highs earlier in the month, agricultural commodity futures have pulled-back significantly enough to start looking for entry signals to the buy side for at least a test of recent highs. Cattle futures, however, continue to trend in the opposite position while hog futures recently extended their gains. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Flourishing Market Makes Sugar Futures at Risk for Sell-Off

Sugar futures extended their gains only slightly today but one bank warns of heavy fund activity making sugar vulnerable to a sell-off. Sugar futures are up 5 points today currently trading at .1966 per pound at the New York Intercontinental Exchange. Even with increasing expectations for next season’s sugar deficit, a prominent Dutch-bank feels strongly the sugar market sentiment has been exaggerated much ahead of the fundamental situation. Any shift in production at this point – the bank points out – could encourage a “rush for the exit” in this heavily top-heavy market. Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “The fundamental situation reportedly supports higher sugar (futures) prices, but with no significant pull-back after a nickel rise I can understand the bank’s statements.” Taylor adds, “The .20c psychological price is fast approaching and if sugar futures were to sell-off, this may be the turning point price.” The technical trend for sugar futures is up with no top yet in sight. Sugar futures have accelerated almost two-cents ahead of it 18-day moving average, so we can easily see a pull-back to the mid-.17c level (in my study). ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Coffee Futures Soar as Vietnam’s Output Looking Bleak

Coffee futures are reacting to news from SE Asia that Vietnam’s coffee harvest is expected to decline to a four-year low amid reoccurring dryness which threatens a further downgrade to overall production. Coffee futures are up just over .07 cents today currently trading at $1.3925 per pound at New York’s Intercontinental Exchange. Vietnam mainly produces “robusta” coffee beans and the USDA’s Hanoi-bureau forecasts output there to drop by 7% for the 2016-17 season. What’s reportedly saving more of Vietnam’s coffee crop is the fact that farmers there have access to irrigation water from both reservoirs and underground sources. The USDA-bureau in Hanoi, Vietnam, shared their fundamental view of the coffee futures market by stating, “Despite the dryness, damage to the 2016-17 crop during the key flowering and fruit-setting stage (from January to early March) has been minimal.” The USDA adds, “May rainfall… has been much lower than the same period in the last five years. The lack of May rain is adding stress to coffee trees. If the lack of rains continues in June coffee crops will face additional losses.” Coffee futures trend has been choppy at best for the past six months. Just today coffee futures have broken out above a key resistance level turning the trend “up” in my work. ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...

Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets. As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move. Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them: UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal, Crude Oil, Lumber, Sugar, Soybeans, Corn and Russell 200 Index & 10yr. T-Notes (Both new this week.) DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  High-Grade Copper (New this week.) ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL...