USDA Downgrade of Harvest & Stocks a Boost For Wheat Futures

Wheat futures have rebounded from negative territory after the USDA reported the current harvest and inventories of the grain rose less than analysts predicted. Wheat futures are up more than .07 cents today currently trading at $5.11 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat futures gained 2% for the day when before the USDA report was released it was trading just below $5 per bushel, but immediately following the report it quickly shot-up to nearly $5.15 per bushel. Although today’s USDA estimate is more than last year’s wheat output, it is reportedly 85M less than what was estimated by them only three weeks ago.

Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shares her view regarding the fundamental situation of the wheat futures markets by stating, The wheat (futures) trade was looking for supportive numbers having changed trends (from down) lately.” Taylor added,In the bigger scheme of things it will take much more exports, or demand picture overall, to sustain and support this market in my view.”

The trend for wheat futures is mixed with soft-red variety in a new uptrend, but hard-red still in a technical downtrend. Wheat futures tend to drift higher this time of year well after their northern hemisphere harvest, but I’ll need to see a more clearer picture unfold before getting too excited about being on the long side.

ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.