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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 20+ years experience for the commodity futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Russell 2000 Index, Crude Oil and S&P 500 Index & Soybean Oil (Both new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: British Pound, Corn, Eurodollars and Lean Hogs & CBT Wheat (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Copper Futures Lower Amid Hedge Funds Bailing
Copper futures are once again lower and have erased all its gains for the year as Goldman Sachs is predicting a “supply storm” to hit the markets and erode copper prices even more. Copper futures are down another 15 points today ending the day trading at $2.0775 per pound at the New York Commodity Exchange.
Which stockpiles of inventory reportedly building, such as that in the London Metals Exchange reaching a ten-month high, and supplies said to be moving out of China to warehouses, the evidence of such build-up is what is creating the bearish outlook. Other metals may be shining so far this year, but copper is proving to be lackluster.
“There’s just no stomach for investors to push their longs in copper,” said Bob Minter, a Philadelphia-based investment strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management, sharing his fundamental assessment of the copper futures market. Minter added, “the second half of the year is traditionally a challenging time for many of the industrial commodities, so seasonality is working against copper at this point too.”
Copper futures trend is clearly “down” with no bottom yet in sight. Before getting short copper futures at these levels, I would await a bounce in this market in an effort to lower risk.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Russell 2000 Index, Feeder Cattle and Crude Oil (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: British Pound, Corn, Eurodollars and Lean Hogs & Kansas Wheat (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Amid Higher Feed Costs, Poultry Production Makes Record High in Brazil
Broiler meat production is set to reach an all-time high next year in Brazil with export demand increasing. Cash broiler chicken is $20 from their 52-week high in June, and only $6 from its low last November.
The USDA’s Brasilia-bureau made this forecast of record exports and production with demand reportedly from China and the European Union. Broiler chicken meat exports from that country are expected to hit a whopping 4.4M tons next year.
“The growth in exports will likely be driven by higher world demand for the Brazilian products, mostly from China, the European Union and new markets recently opened,” said an USDA official, from the Brasilia-bureau in Brazil, sharing their fundamental assessment of the broiler chicken futures market. The USDA added, “In the past 12 months, the average cost of broiler production increased by 34%, basically influenced by the prices of corn and soybean meal.”
The current trend for broiler chicken is down from the June high. With the current down-trend in corn and soymeal futures, we could probably see continued downside for broiler chickens toward the November 52-week low.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Cotton Futures Down Amid News of West African Production to Surge
Cotton futures continue to tank from their earlier August high above .78c now that the news is out about West African cotton production to surge. Cotton futures are down .43 cents today currently trading at $0.6801 per pound for December delivery at New York’s Intercontinental Exchange.
Last week the USDA announced from their Dakar-bureau that West African cotton production – formerly damaged last growing season by weather – is prepared to bounce back. Cotton production in the growing regions for the 2016-17 season is believed to reach 24% more than production for last year’s season.
“The beginning of the 2016-17 cotton planting campaign started well with enough rains,” said an USDA official, from a bureau in West Africa, sharing their fundamental assessment of the cotton futures market. The USDA added, “In mid-July, 90 percent of the forecasted area had been sowed.”
Earlier this month cotton futures had been in a strong up-trend, but a week and a half ago it has rolled over to “down” as the trend remains. With news such as this coming out against cotton futures, it will take much to change the direction.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Two-Week High to Test July Natural Gas Futures Resistance?
Natural gas futures have reached a two week high today as the outlook for the preferred air-conditioning fuel was seen bullish with “warmer than normal” forecasts across most of the country. Natural gas futures are up just over .04 cents today currently trading above $2.74 per million btu’s for September delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Just yesterday, forecasters called for “scorching heat” across most of the USA through Labor Day causing natural gas traders to bid-up the energy almost .10 cents. The high at our nation’s capitol is even expected to be three degrees higher than normal to start September off.
“We’ll see demand for natural gas (futures) as long as the weather stays warm and especially when it continues outside its normal parameters,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the natural gas futures market. Taylor added, “I think natural gas traders biggest concern right now though continues to be the higher than normal inventory of the fuel.”
Natural gas futures is at a crossroads at this time with a high-top possibly in place. If natural gas futures sustain trade below $2.50, then it can lead to a bigger sell-off, but a breakout above $3.00 resumes the up-trend.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Gold, Silver, Russell 2000 Index, and Feeder Cattle
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: British Pound, Corn and Eurodollars
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybean Futures Break Even as Brazil Exports Soar Despite Crop Shortfalls
Soybean futures appear to be selling-off today despite crop shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere where crushing plants in Brazil are reportedly cutting back and exports said to be high. Soybean futures are down .16 cents today currently trading at $10.00 even per bushel for November delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade.
According to a University of Sao Paulo economic think-tank, despite soybean crop shortfalls Brazil’s soybean exports this year have surpassed those from last year at this time to a record 44.35M metric tons. Soybean meal compared to this same time last year have reportedly risen 8.7%, they also claim.
“Part of the reason for reduced crush demand in Brazil is is said to be due to eroding demand from their poultry industry,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Craney added, “Reports of Cargill and another prominent soybean crusher stopped the processing of soybeans reportedly due to lack of demand.”
Soybean futures trend had been technically “down” until today’s trading session. When and if soybean futures take out today’s high before any sustained trading below $9.84 over the next week occur, this may change the course of the trend to up.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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