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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 20+ years experience for the commodity futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
With Dairy Outlook Quiet, Milk Futures Still Rally
Milk futures have extended their gains from the April 14th low, however overall dairy activity has not mirrored the action. Milk futures for June delivery was up .04 cents today trading at $14.02 (per cwt) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Along with milk futures, whole milk powder prices have been up 7.5% to their highest levels in three months, while skimmed milk powder has only rose 0.3% – cheddar cheese actually falling by nearly 4%. Production in New Zealand – the world’s top dairy exporter – remains robust despite most farmers there operating “in the red.”
Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the milk futures market by stating, “Milk futures, however accelerating solely from overall dairy futures, shouldn’t be looked into much.” Bourbeau adds, “Global dairy markets may remain under heavy production, but we’re understanding overall demand is rather sluggish.”
The trend for milk futures is “up” from the overall picture March lows, but barely. I expect milk futures to test its March lows or continue with the overall downtrend should the $13.50 support area become compromised.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Japanese Yen, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P 500 Index, Euro-currency, Soybean Oil and Soymeal & Soybeans (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: British Pound and Feeder Cattle (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Interest-Rate Futures Lower After Former Fed Chairman Greenspan’s Statements
Treasury bond futures continued lower this week after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke on CNBC and stated “monetary policy” has virtually run its course unless we reintroduce quantitive easing. The 30-year Treasury bond futures are currently down 25 points today currently trading at 165^03 per 100K face value at the Chicago Board of Trade.
Earlier this morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” IMF managing director Christine LaGarde said that negative interest-rates were creating a positive impact, but when the former Fed chairman spoke he publicly disagreed with her assessment. In case you have not heard, some European countries, Japan, and even big bankers in New York have decided to push interest-rates into “negative” territory – yes, you must pay the bank to hold your deposits.
“Monetary policy … has done everything it can unless you want to put additional QEs on. They’re not helping that much in the sense that ultimately determines whether or not you’re getting an effect from the QEs” (beyond increasing price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market),” said Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman for the Federal Reserve, sharing his fundamental assessment of the interest-rate futures market. Greenspan added, “There’s no real evidence that we’re getting an impact on lending and on the economy picking up.”
The trend for interest-rate futures is technically up, however stagnant & sideways. Interest-rate futures will eventually breakout one way, or another, but with the economy flat as it is, it feels more like a “calm before the storm.”
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
China’s Demand a Boon for Chicago Board of Trade Grain Futures
Grain futures are thumbing their nose at glut supplies with their recent rally not seen in months, and its all about China’s demand outlook. Grain futures are up all across the board with soybean futures up another .20 cents trading just over $9.56 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
It was only yesterday the USDA monthly crop production report was released forecasting even more global grains inventories, but China’s perceived economic situation is what grain traders are focusing on right now. Just when we thought corn futures were on their way down, they made new highs for the year today, and soybean futures are at their highest since August.
“With the grain (futures) markets recent spike, I’d say this is a show of confidence on a global scale,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the grain futures market. Levy added, “…and with ‘La Nina’ weather conditions right around the corner, this could be just the start of higher markets to come by early Summer.”
The grain markets trends are mixed at this time – soybean futures in a newly emerged up-trend, corn futures being revived from contract lows, and wheat futures still in a technical down-trend. I would consider awaiting the dust to settle in these grain futures markets and hopefully a dip to be a buyer before jumping on this high-speed train.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Gold Futures Hit Three-Week High on Weak Dollar
Gold futures extended their gains today with not only a weaker dollar, but the outlook that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious in their monetary tightening approach. Gold futures are up $1.50 trading at $1,259.50 per ounce at the Commodity Exchange in New York.
Gold futures for June delivery reached $1,264.60 today – prices not seen since March 22nd – just as the US Dollar tested Monday’s low of 93.74 which is its weakest price since October. The dollar has remained weak since Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, made comments eluding to expectations of the next interest-rate increase.
“The Fed’s are keeping a very ‘open mind’ in the direction of interest-rate increase keeping the gold trade rather on edge,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his fundamental assessment of the gold futures market. Brady added, “A lower-priced dollar is beneficial to gold investors as it keeps the price of bullion lower.”
The trend for gold futures remains up with the market testing its March highs. Gold futures is trading between its $1,290 (March) high, and its $1,210 (late-March) low.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Japanese Yen, Gold, Kansas Wheat, Natural Gas, S&P 500 Index, Euro-currency, and Soybean Oil
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Cocoa and British Pound (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Brazilian Exit of Biofuel Plant a Setback for Ethanol Futures Market
Ethanol futures may be in for a setback as Archer Daniels Midland sold their Brazil ethanol plant and is mulling the selling of their three US ethanol plants. Ethanol futures are up 42 points this week near $1.50 per gallon on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The agri-industry giant claims the business environment is in a “challenging” time for the biofuel, however, at one time the company was considered the leading champion of biofuels. Another reason, ADM cites, for closing down their Brazil ethanol plant is that they didn’t see their long-term objectives for their company, and their shareholders, being met.
“If ADM is selling their biofuel ethanol plants, it may be a turning point in the ethanol (futures) market,” said Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her fundamental assessment of the ethanol futures market. Taylor added, “With all of the bad press with ethanol and the EPA – as well as the public – the writing may be on the wall for the long-term use of ethanol products.”
Ethanol futures have been in a tight sideways trading pattern for the past two years with a slight bias upward. With an agriculture giant such as Archer Daniels Midland looking to bow-out of the business, I am quite sure the ethanol futures market is watching the developments of this transaction closely.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Corn Futures Pullback After Surge in Plantings Plunge
Corn futures have rebounded 50% of the March 31st plunge following the USDA report which said sowings for corn will be much higher than thought this year with soybeans and wheat taking a back seat. Corn futures are up almost a penny currently trading just under $3.58 per bushel at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Late last week it was reported by the USDA farmers here in the US will sow just over 93.5M acres of corn for this year’s harvest – following a survey of growers, this is the third biggest amount of acreage since WWII. This is an increase of 5.6M acres from last year’s sowings, and well above the 90M acres that the USDA was expecting in their prior estimates.
“Much, much corn already in storage and if the weather is favorable, then we may see a glut like we haven’t seen in a very long time,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the corn futures market. Craney added, “Farmers will try their best just to break-even on their corn crops just to pay their bills.”
The trend for corn futures had turned up in the latter part of last month, but quickly resumed back down with the overall longer-term trend. This is the time of year that corn futures is supposed to be heading higher into June/July period, but I don’t see this happening anytime soon (or perhaps “this” year).
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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