The Official Brian Schad Commodity Futures
& Options Trading Corporation Website
Commitment to Trading Excellence
Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Soybean Futures Break Even as Brazil Exports Soar Despite Crop Shortfalls
Soybean futures appear to be selling-off today despite crop shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere where crushing plants in Brazil are reportedly cutting back and exports said to be high. Soybean futures are down .16 cents today currently trading at $10.00 even per bushel for November delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade.
According to a University of Sao Paulo economic think-tank, despite soybean crop shortfalls Brazil’s soybean exports this year have surpassed those from last year at this time to a record 44.35M metric tons. Soybean meal compared to this same time last year have reportedly risen 8.7%, they also claim.
“Part of the reason for reduced crush demand in Brazil is is said to be due to eroding demand from their poultry industry,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Craney added, “Reports of Cargill and another prominent soybean crusher stopped the processing of soybeans reportedly due to lack of demand.”
Soybean futures trend had been technically “down” until today’s trading session. When and if soybean futures take out today’s high before any sustained trading below $9.84 over the next week occur, this may change the course of the trend to up.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Even with Heavy Brazilian Production, Sugar Futures Rise
Sugar futures are defying fundamental news such as favorable weather contributing to brisk production in Brazil’s south center sugar-belt region. Sugar futures are up 25 points today currently trading at $0.2023 per pound for October delivery at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York City.
Brazil’s “sugar council” Unica reports the south central sugar producing region was up just over 3M tons in the second-half of last month – that’s reportedly up 9.5% from the first-half of July and up 10.6% from the same time last year. With favorable weather in the region, it is allowing a good pace for sugar-cane cutting.
Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental view of the sugar futures market by stating, “Besides the rapid pace in cane cutting, the price of sugar does not favor ethanol production at this time .” Plotkin adds, “We can expect sugar mills to produce more sugar because of these high gas prices.”
The technical trend for sugar futures remains “up” with a possible top in place, however. If sugar futures were to breakout below .1875 with lower lows, we could possibly see a new down-trend for this market.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Russell 2000 Index, Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: British Pound, Lean Hogs, Crude Oil, Corn and Eurodollars (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Cocoa Futures May Be In For a Bumpy Ride
Cocoa futures have been on a rollercoaster since February (albeit one could argue December) and if one analyst is correct there is more volatility ahead. Cocoa futures are down 14 points today currently trading at $2,991 per ton for September delivery at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York City.
Its not only the uncertainty of the West African cocoa crop prospects, but with last year’s deficit there may need to be heavy production to make up the shortfall. The ongoing weather outlook is believed to be the catalyst for the cocoa market trading erratically.
Judith Ganes Chase, a leading independent consultant for soft commodities, shared her fundamental view of the cocoa futures market by stating, “Following a production deficit of 180,000 tonnes in 2015-16, conditions need to be very favorable to close this gap and swing the market to a large surplus.” Gates Chase adds, “This will be more of a challenge with cocoa processing margins now attractive, leading to improved demand.”
The trend for cocoa futures is “sideways” and at a crossroad. If cocoa futures were to sustain trading above 3200, we may see an up-trend, but a breakout below the February lows of 2750 may take the market lower.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
China’s Economy May be Foretold by Copper Futures
Copper futures continue to falter as lack of movement in China’s copper inventories tell of a market with slack demand. Copper futures are down 130 points today currently trading at $2.1520 per pound for September delivery at the Commodity Exchange in New York City.
China is the worlds largest importer of copper and user of the industrial metal by making grand items used for infrastructure and as small as coins. Right now China’s economic numbers do not project growth and the lack of demand in current inventories is corroborating the outlook for the copper market.
BMI Research, a leading industry analyst group, shared their fundamental view of the copper futures market by stating, “We expect China’s refined copper imports to decelerate over the remainder of the year, and will remain wary of any other rapid movements in inventories.” BMI adds, “While the corresponding decline in Shanghai inventories largely offset the jump in [London Metal Exchange], the shift suggests that China’s strong H116 economic data does not in fact reflect improving demand growth.”
The trend for copper futures has just turned “down” as of Friday. Copper futures overall remain range-bound, however since March.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate their bigger changing picture:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Russell 2000 Index and Copper & Live Cattle (Both new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soy Oil, British Pound, Lean Hogs, CBT Wheat and Crude Oil & Corn (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Corn Futures at a Crossroads as China Set to Cut Corn Production
Corn futures have halted its $1.20 downtrend since mid-June as Reuters has broken the news about China planning to cut corn production. Corn futures are up a mere .01 cent today currently trading at $3.36 per bushel for December delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade.
This would be China’s first cut in corn production in 13 years which is reported to be by 3.29M acres, but according to the USDA, China still has 37M hectares devoted to corn – 14M hectares more since 2001. This cut in production is said to be an attempt to reduce massive stockpiles of about 250M tons in inventory.
Danielle Bourbeau, a commodity broker for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the corn futures market by stating, “Its obvious to see with so much corn in China’s inventory, there won’t be any imports of corn for them any time soon.” Bourbeau adds, “Now what will this do for our corn (futures) market?”
Corn futures trend is “down” with no bottom yet in sight. In my opinion, corn futures prices are treading near production costs so farmers may be wanting to do something about this…
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
All Eyes On Corporate Earnings & Data While Stock Futures On Track for 8th Straight Loss
Stock futures barely opened lower today with investors standing-by to evaluate a fresh release of corporate earnings and key US economic data with the possibility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s eight straight loss. The Dow Jones stock market is up at mere 22.67 points today currently trading at 18,337 and change at the New York Stock Exchange.
The current environment of falling crude oil prices and shaky economic data caused the stock markets to suffer their worst day in nearly a month. Prior to yesterday’s plunge, a string of disappointing economic news has investors pricing in a potential rate hike by a one-eight chance by the end of next month (38% by December).
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental view of the stock futures market by stating, “The uncertainty of the US economy has investors looking ahead to see if the world’s largest economy is healthy enough to have the Federal Reserve hike interest-rates later on this year.” Levy adds, “As time passes lately, the chances of higher interest-rates are dwindling.”
The trend for stock futures is clearly “up” – as with all stock markets at this time. Only with the Dow Jones stock market are we seeing a possible top formation forming, so more time needs to pass to see a clearer picture of things with stocks.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Recent Comments