The Official Brian Schad Commodity Futures
& Options Trading Corporation Website
Commitment to Trading Excellence
Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Hog Futures Making Slow Comeback as Record Production Maybe Spurring Demand
Hog futures have halted their first-quarter slide and appear to be making their way higher as record production of hogs is reportedly putting more pork on the menu. Hog futures are up over $1.52 per CWT and are currently trading at $65.07 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Wholesale prices of pork are down 40% since last summer and more restaurants are reportedly buying more of the product to serve and apparently this is creating demand. With prices so low compared to beef, domestic pork production is heading for an all-time high this year.
“With all the extra pork supplies out there, restaurants of all types are seeing the value and creating more items to serve to the public,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the hog futures markets. Medina added, “The hog trade appears to have picked-up on the demand and stopped the early year onslaught.”
The trend for hog futures appears to be in a very early stage of an up-trend. Prices are still low enough for pork lovers to enjoy their favorite sandwiches or dishes, but a breakout above $72.00 (CWT) could mean steadily higher prices down the road.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soymeal and Soybeans
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Silver, Gold and Copper
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Slowing Demand for Supply Weighing on Copper Futures
Copper futures are said to be spiraling lower not only because demand has been hampered for the raw material, but now there’s confirmation of that by the lack of requests to withdraw copper from the London Metal Exchange warehouses – the lowest since March, 2013. Copper futures is down $4.50 per pound today (as of this writing), currently trading at $2.38 at New York’s Mercantile Exchange.
Copper is used in many things in our daily life, such as car’s, electronic devices and power lines, but stockpiles of the industrial metal have reportedly doubled over the last two years as consumption has all but dried-up. China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, is experiencing slower economic growth hampering demand for the metal, but they are just one country of many.
“There is simply too much physical copper available with a fundamental view,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the copper futures markets. Craney added, “Being that copper is considered an ‘industrial metal,’ it may take not only China’s economy, but other nation’s economy to turn the copper market around.”
Copper futures trend is clearly down with no bottom in sight. A bounce higher should be required before traders even consider taking a short position because the risk (volatility) is quite high.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Crude Oil Futures Back Below $50 on Supply
Crude oil futures traded below $50 per barrel today for the first time since the initial down-move In March took oil prices to the $44 dollar area. Crude oil futures are trading down $1.69 as of this writing currently at $49.14 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The analysts reportedly were expecting a drop in supply of nearly TWO MILLION barrels, but the API reported a rise of 2.3M barrels here in the US as of last week – a significant spread. Another report from the Energy Information Administration may show a slightly less amount of crude oil stockpiles as of July 17th.
“For a very brief amount of time it appears peak summer demand was reflected in the API & EIA estimates,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the crude oil futures markets. Plotkin added, “With the yearly summer demand picture behind us, the crude oil market could very easily make new year to date lows.”
The technical trend for crude oil is down with no bottom yet in sight. With crude oil below $50 per barrel, maybe us consumers can see gasoline prices reflected lower as well…
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Commodity Prices Crashing to 13-Year Lows
The bench-mark “Bloomberg Commodity Index” has been in freefall for the fifth-day in a row now, which is reportedly the biggest stretch of declines since March. Yesterday the commodity index dropped a reported 1.1% alone with the help of a strengthening dollar and the perceived agreement for higher interest-rates forthcoming..
Gold only yesterday spiraled lower to five-year lows, but not just that market – Brent crude oil, industrial metals, natural gas, and even some agricultural products have been part of this rout in commodity prices. A strong dollar means higher costs for importers commodities, while higher interest-rates make borrowing costs unattractive for anybody.
“With the Federal Reserve Chairwoman clearly signaling a hike in interest-rates soon, rather than later, it’s economics 101 for investors to sell assets and hold onto whatever gains or cash they have on hand,” said Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the commodity futures markets. Evans added, “The strength of the US Dollar makes lower raw materials costs a slam dunk.”
More than one-half of the markets I trade (all agricultural markets) are in down-trends, or have recently rolled over into down-trends. The few that are still “up” are all at a crossroads, so, time for traders to accept lower commodity futures prices ahead.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soymeal, Corn, Soybeans and CBT Wheat
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Silver, Gold and Copper
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Gold Futures Lagging on Greek Debt Restructuring & US Data
Gold futures are down for the fourth straight trading session after mixed-signals with the US economy and the unfolding of the Greek debt crisis. Gold futures are down $2.70 per ounce currently at $1,144.70 at the Commodity Exchange in New York.
Gold – usually viewed as a “safe-haven” for investors amid inflation and world instability – has been lagging despite the sluggish economy in China, the Greek debt crisis becoming larger, and the recent deal on Iran’s nuclear ambition. Here in the US the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, is said to be sending indications that current domestic conditions may likely justify hiking-up interest-rates, however the stronger dollar, recent initial jobless claims, and even manufacturing data are all unclear.
“You would think the world instability in and of itself would be enough for gold (futures) to be trending higher,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, regarding the fundamental assessment of the gold futures markets. Levy added, “With gold at its year-to-date bottom, it may take a lot more ‘surprising’ news to change its direction.”
The trend for gold futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. A bounce higher in gold futures is becoming overdue in my opinion.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Storage Report May Provide Direction for Natural Gas Futures
Natural gas futures appear to be sitting still near the high end of their trading range of nearly two months as energy traders patiently await new data on gas inventories to help determine the demand for the fuel. Natural gas futures are up more than .07 cents today currently trading just over $2.91 per BTU at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The US Energy Information Administration’s storage report is due for release tomorrow with an expected increase of 95B cubic feet for the week ending July 3rd (an increase of 91B happened the week before). The total domestic storage at this time is reportedly 32.8% higher than this same week last year and 1.7% above the five-year average for this period in the year.
“The expected news for the natural gas (futures) trade is certainly not bullish,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, regarding the fundamental assessment of the natural gas futures markets. Brady added, “Only a ‘surprise’ in natural gas news can probably create a breakout from this six-month sideways period.”
Natural gas is said to be the US’s top fuel used for everyday home use. With natural gas prices this low, its a real plus for the domestic consumer.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Recent Comments