The Official Brian Schad Commodity Futures
& Options Trading Corporation Website
Commitment to Trading Excellence
Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index, British Pound, and Euro-Currency (All new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Corn and Sugar (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Supply Outlook Halts Rise in Crude Oil Futures
Crude oil futures seem to be at a stand-still as concerns over US shale production being revived are contemplated. Crude oil futures are up a nominal .40 cents today currently trading at $60.73 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Yesterday, government data showed domestic gasoline inventories rose by a half-million barrels last week – distillate stockpiles increasing by 100K barrels – at a time when the US “driving season” has entered its peak gasoline demand period. Crude oil inventories, on the other hand, fell a little less than expected during this same time period.
“Mixed signals seem to plague the crude oil (futures) market, but nothing really bullish on the horizon,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the crude oil futures market. Levy added, “With crude oil (futures) trading sideways for the better part of two months now, when it breaks out it has the potential to run.”
Crude oil futures entered into a down-trend at the end of last month according to my study. Follow through to the crude oil futures downside can have a positive effect for the consumer, and we may see this in the second-half of the year.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybean Futures Breakout to Five Week High Over Crop Conditions
Soybean futures have had a two-day breakout to the upside to prices not seen since early last month on the outlook of current crop conditions. Soybean futures are up an additional .10 cents today currently trading at $9.375 per bushel (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.
There are weather concerns going on in the US’s soybean growing region and as of June 14th, the USDA rated the domestic soybean crop 67% good to excellent condition – down from 69% the week prior and down from 73% the preceding week before that. To make matters just a little bit more interesting, the USDA also reports only 87% of the soybean crop planted which is just shy of the 90% five year average.
“The soybean trade understands the concerns here,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the soybean futures market. Brady added, “Instead of the soybean (futures) market trading based off of supply-and-demand, a weather crop seems to be emerging here.”
Soybean futures technical trend remains down, but is at a crossroad in my work. Should soybean futures trade above today’s high in the next few sessions (without trading back down to the $9.10 area first), then the trend dynamics would change to up (again, in my study).
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Global Supply Outlook Sends Grain Futures Lower
Both corn futures and wheat futures extend their losses from late last week to reach two-week lows on a positive outlook for global supplies yesterday. Soybean futures were also down, but all grains have reversed course today (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The USDA recently raised their outlook for domestic and global wheat supplies, and also stating global wheat inventories for next season are expected to rise nominally. July Corn has reached prices not seen since last June after the USDA said pretty much the same thing.
“These markets (corn futures & wheat futures) have been trading down and sideways for the better part of this year with this news in mind,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the grain futures market. Medina added, “There is absolutely no fundamental news out there to change the trend of these markets any time soon.”
The trend for our grain futures markets are down with an exception of wheat futures – they’re in what appears to be a failed up-trend. No bottom yet in corn futures, and soybean futures could be putting in a bottom, however, a clearer picture needs to unfold.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soy Oil
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Corn and Japanese Yen
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Two-Week High Can’t Hold for Copper Futures
Copper futures reacted to Chinese economic market data by selling-off after mostly in-line with market expectations after reaching a two-week high only yesterday. Copper futures settled down just over .70 cents today at $2.673 per pound at New York’s Commodity Exchange.
The Chinese government data revealed their industrial production rising by a rate of 6.1% (annualized) last month – just above a 6% increase, and following a 5.9% gain in April. This information comes after it has been learned that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace in six years in the first quarter.
“There are signs that the fragile Chinese economy will need to be shored-up to prevent a further slowdown,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the copper futures market. Craney added, “This is what the copper traders are most likely responding to.”
Copper futures newly emerged down-trend has broke down to lower lows not seen since March & April. Next level of support comes in at the $2.56 level.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Hit Two-Month High, Reverse Course After USDA
Wheat futures reached highs not seen since early April in its renewed uptrend, and just before the monthly USDA Crop Production was released. Wheat futures did an about-face just prior to the report and closed down almost .20 cents for the day just below $5.13 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The trade expected the USDA to raise their estimates for both corn and wheat supplies, and lower the outlook for soybeans in this current crop season. The released estimates for these markets were indeed confirmed, but the market sold off thereafter.
“It’s a typical case of ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ with this wheat market today,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the wheat futures market. Plotkin added, “The recent rains in the Central Plains and how it may affect the wheat market still cannot be overlooked.”
The trend for both hard & soft-red winter wheat is up with soft-red stronger of the two. In my view, the wheat market’s rallied early this year due to the heavy rains in the Central Plains – prime wheat growing country and the result of these down-pours still has yet to be seen…
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Avian Flu Proving to Disrupt Domestic Egg Prices
Egg prices around the country may be on the rise, if you haven’t noticed already. A major Texas-based national grocer is putting up signs around their 350 supermarkets preparing customers to ration eggs because of the Avian Flu.
Once thought as lethal in other parts of the world, Avian-flu is reportedly spreading around the country to a point of national crisis. According to the USDA, as of this month there have been 46M chicken and turkey’s affected, 80% of which are said to be egg-laying hens!
Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his view regarding the fundamental assessment of the dairy futures market by stating, “I would expect this crisis to affect the food processors (and their customers) more than the consumers of actual ‘in-shell’ eggs itself.” Evans adds, “It’s the cost of processing egg-products that has made egg-based food products 2.5 times the price since this scare started, less than the USDA’s reported egg prices ‘just about doubling’ during this same period.”
Dairy prices affect most consumers, especially those raising families. Egg prices are outside of the three-year price average for this time of year, unfortunately with no top yet in sight.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Recent Comments