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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Strike by Brazil’s Truckers Affecting Soybean Futures
Soybean futures have back-tracked just as much as they shot-up in price yesterday based on what is transpiring a continent away. Soybean futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade is currently down .115 cents at $10.0725 per bushel (as of this writing) after closing up above $10.18 only yesterday.
Apparently concerns regarding disruptions to supplies from Brazil had reportedly boosted prices as a strike from truckers there protesting high fuel prices has continued for a week. More recently the Brazilian government has imposed a fine on these truckers for blocking the road and holding-up grain exports at their nation’s second-largest exporting city.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating, “If Brazil wasn’t a major soybean exporter that competes with US supplies it wouldn’t be much of a story.” Craney added, “The demand for soybeans still exists so even when supplies ‘anywhere’ are threatened just goes to show how (grain) prices may spike.”
Soybean futures trend had turned up just last week, possibly due to this South American strike. Seasonally speaking, however, soybean futures do turn the corner right about this time so I’m happy to be with the new-found trend.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Hog Futures: The Only Commodity to Fall More Than Oil
Despite energy and gold dominating the news wires recently, lean hog futures are the one commodity that has actually fallen MORE than crude oil. Lean hog futures are actually up 40 points at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (as of this writing), but in the overall scheme of things the hog market has actually plummeted over 51% since the end of last June.
“Lean hog” (futures) – the market-term designating butchered pigs regardless of size – have only sunk in price after reaching record highs last summer after a terrible disease decimated supplies. Thankfully to the credit of resourceful pig farmers, once the virus ran its course more hogs made it to the market and the USDA projects a 5.5% rise in pork production this year at a time of slowing int’l demand.
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current hog futures situation by stating, “As fast as the hog futures were rising with the wrath of last year’s virus, hog prices are coming down twice as fast due to a combination increased supply and lessor demand.”
The trend for hog futures is down with no clear bottom yet in sight. All lean hog rallies should be viewed as opportunities to get in on the short side – which is where I’m at.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index and Cotton, NASDAQ & S&P 500 Indices (These three new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle, Coffee, Kansas Wheat and Sugar (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Demand Concerns Weakening Wheat Futures
Wheat futures initially extended their losses from yesterday earlier in the trading session because of the outlook of waning demand for domestic supplies. May Wheat futures have since rebounded and are currently .03 cents higher at the Chicago Board of Trade, and .015 cents higher at the Kansas City Board of trade (as of this writing).
Wheat futures took a significant plunge yesterday when it was revealed Egypt cancelled their tender to purchase US wheat. This is an important factor in the price of wheat because Egypt happens to be the world’s biggest wheat importer.
Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, “The Egypt factor (canceling their order to buy US wheat) is a telling factor of the problem with ample world supplies against our strong US dollar.” Plotkin added, “The seasonal factor for wheat futures is also developing.”
Wheat futures trend is technically down, but at a crossroads. The outlook for wheat futures is all bearish if you listen to the news, but this market could be bottoming if May Wheat were to trade up to $5.45 per bushel before taking out today’s lows in the very near future.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybean Futures Shift Trend to Up on Crushing Demand
Soybean futures managed to reach a five week high in very early trading today before doing an “about-face” by mid-session. Soybean futures are currently down .16c per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade as of this writing.
Earlier this week the US National Oilseed Processors Association stated in an official report something that has never happened before – January saw the biggest soybean crush ever recorded in that particular month. A sign of things to come…? Not so fast, soybeans remain vulnerable with the South American crop looking good (so far).
Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental analysis insight regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating, “The report from the Oilseed Association may be tipping it’s hat for what could be expected for soybean futures this spring.” Evans added, “The biggest soybean crush in the history of ‘January’ can only mean one thing – demand.”
The trend for soybean futures has just turned up with the five week high being set. Although soybean futures have done a complete about-face since hitting those highs, I am looking for buy signals.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
New York’s Feds Send Gold Futures Plummeting
Gold futures are sharply lower today reportedly after the New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions showed improvement for prospects in February – but just not at the pace for economic growth expected. The index dipped to a level of “7.8” for this month when in fact analysts were4 expecting 8.5.
Gold futures may be at a vulnerable crossroads amid ongoing expectations for the Federal Reserve private bank to begin a campaign to raise interest-rates possibly in June. Higher interest-rates are considered bearish for gold & precious metals as an investment because it competes with yield-bearing assets when rates are rising.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis insight regarding the current gold futures by stating, “All eyes for gold investors will be on tomorrow’s release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting.” Levy added, “Maybe it will provide a clearer picture when interest-rates will possibly rise.”
The trend for gold futures is down once again after a brief rise last month. There is no bottom yet in sight for gold futures, however, a base of support comes in at the $1,170.00 level in my study.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle, Coffee, Crude Oil, Kansas Wheat and Japanese Yen, Soymeal & Soybeans (These three new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Bloomberg Survey: Agricultural Commodity Futures Prices Most Accurate, Crude Oil Prices Least Accurate
I had a chance to review a video from last October in which a gal from the Bloomberg News organization reported on a survey taken regarding commodity prices. The survey concluded that commodity prices are wrong 27% of the time, but there’s a little more to the story…
A two month survey last year of 270 “traders” revealed the least confidence in actual commodity “pricing,” and the most confidence in currency & stock prices probably because the latter two are more publicly involved and regulated, whereas commodity pricing is not. However, and this is what caught my attention, another conclusion of the survey revealed trader’s consensus is that agricultural commodities are the most accurately priced (more stable), and crude oil prices are the least accurate – as we all know from the unstable gas prices at the pump.
Laura Taylor, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis insight regarding the current commodity futures pricing situation by stating, “The whole world comes to the Chicago Board of Trade and Mercantile Exchange for their agricultural products because of the solid reputation they have built between the farmer and the users.” Taylor added, “With energy products, there may simply be too many ‘middle-men’ involved causing prices to fluctuate erratically – not surprising results from the survey.”
It doesn’t surprise me that the agricultural commodity futures markets are considered the most stable of all futures markets. The grains are the most favorable market for me trade and there is good reason why I stopped trading crude oil and other energy markets in the last decade…
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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