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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Argentine Exports Expected to Rise by Farmer Sales Seen Slowing Soybean Meal Futures
Soybean meal futures may be preparing to decline as news from Argentina suggests processors there are stepping up their exports. Soybean meal futures have experienced a big boost last month, enough to get the attention of grain processors in the world’s biggest exporter of soymeal.
Argentina is expected to ship between 1.2-1.3M metric tons of soymeal during this first-half of November, and total soymeal exports for this month is anticipated to be nearly one-million tons more than this same time last year at this current rate (if it can be kept up). Soybean meal futures blasted-off out of nowhere last month due to delayed domestic shipping, and this delay effectively shifted importers demands to South American suppliers – thus, the decision to “step-up” processing.
Soybean meal futures trend is up, however, I see possible “topping” action in this range between $410 – $370 per ton. This bounce in soybean meal futures today is the reaction to yesterday’s sell-off after the monthly USDA crop production report was released. I am proceeding with caution.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Corn, Soymeal and CBT Wheat (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Euro-currency, Crude Oil, Silver and Gold (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Corn Futures Initially Decline as USDA May Boost Forecast
Corn futures were initially lower in this morning’s trading on the outlook Monday’s USDA report will show even larger domestic grain crops than previously expected. Corn futures has since rebounded into the black currently trading up .03 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
A new survey of expert analysts now claim corn farmers may harvest over 14.5B bushels of corn – which would be the most ever, and larger than last months forecast of 14.475B bushels. Corn is the USA’s number one cash crop (followed by soybeans, then “hay,” and wheat) and also the biggest grower of corn in the world.
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current corn futures situation by stating today, “Heading into next week’s USDA (crop report), traders are hesitating establishing aggressive positions. Many traders believe the report will reflect an increase in production in both corn and soybeans.” Riordan added, “Possibly a pickup in yield estimates also…”
The trend for corn futures is up since the second week of October. We are long corn futures and may stay long going into Monday’s report.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Alabama Cotton Farmers Anticipate Good Crop; Cotton Futures Lower
Cotton futures have been trading range-bound for the last three months after selling off from their spring highs earlier this year in anticipation of this year’s cotton harvest now underway. In Alabama, if the cotton growers can escape potential flooding they expect a good crop – and much of it.
In two years time, cotton futures have sold off to half the price it once was, so cotton farmers are having to plant twice as much cotton to compensate for the declining prices. Estimates in Alabama are calling for average yields of about 850 pounds to the acre, so their cotton gins in some locations are running 24-hours a day.
Jeff Evans, a Senior Broker and Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current cotton futures situation by stating today, “While earlier this year I was near term bullish cotton, the recent shift in global currencies devaluing against the US Dollar has caused commodity prices in general to trend lower. Quite simply, a stronger US Dollar buys more cotton (priced in Dollars) and this trend is likely to continue for some time.”
Cotton futures trend is technically down, albeit sideways to lower for the past three months. I am short cotton futures with an expectation for the market to head lower to the .57-.55c level into the latter part of this month.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Natural Gas Futures Soar to Four-Week High on Temperature Outlook
Natural Gas futures have done a complete “about-face” from last week’s contract low ($3.625 per 1,000ft3 of Btu’s) to prices not seen since the first trading day of last month. Natural gas futures are responding to meteorologists predictions that “below-normal” temperatures this winter season incite demand for the efficient heating fuel (starting this month!).
To make this situation more interesting, natural gas stockpiles are reportedly 7.8% less than near this same time last year, which is the biggest deficit for this time of year since 2005. Temperatures in the eastern-part of the US are expected to be colder than normal starting next week on the 9th and continue through November 18th.
Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his insight regarding the current natural gas futures situation by stating today, “Cold weather in the Eastern part of the country, while natural gas stockpiles are falling, have pushed natural gas futures to a new monthly high.” Brady added, “If the cold weather in the East continues we could see natural gas futures continue to rise.”
The trend for natural gas futures is now up as of today (in my view). On the opening bell yesterday, natural gas futures gap-open higher and hasn’t looked back. I would await a pull-back in natural gas futures before jumping on-board this train.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: S&P 500 Index, Corn, Soymeal, Soybeans (All new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Sugar, Euro-currency, Copper, Soybean Oil, Crude Oil and Silver (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Livestock & Poultry Spark Biggest Soybean Meal Feed-Price Rally Since 1974
Soybean meal futures are seeing it’s biggest monthly gains in four decades as livestock & poultry feed made from soybeans is soaring due to rail-trains not being able to get feed to the animals fast enough. Soybean meal futures are down over $15 per ton currently trading at $381 in Chicago (as of this writing).
The “Association of American Railroads” date show weekly speed-train (deliveries) fell last week to the slowest rates since Spring of 2010 – while terminal waiting delays rose to its highest level since July. Soybean meal futures have spiked 31% this month alone with meat prices hovering near record highs spurring the current soy-feed demand against current shipping delays from processing plants in the Midwest.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current soybean meal futures situation by stating today, “(Soybean meal futures) surged higher this week due in large part to farmers holding back supplies rather than selling them at recent low prices. Livestock farmers account for the large demand for soymeal as they are sitting on large herds, and are trying to deal with the tight supply situation and delivery difficulties due to problems with transportation of the product.”
Soybean meal futures are clearly up with no top yet in sight. I exited our soybean meal futures position prematurely when it appeared a pull-back was in order. I am looking for a way back in…
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Grinding Higher on Russian Cold
December Wheat futures are extending their recent gains today, up already more than 12% this month with its biggest gain monthly gain since March. December Wheat futures are currently up .09 cents at $5.3975 per bushel.
An agriculture weather group reportedly wrote in a report today that lower temperatures in wheat growing regions in Russia are expected to stump the growth of up to two-thirds of the Russian crop – ultimately pushing the wheat crop into winter dormancy. The temperatures are working against further wheat growth along with 60% less than normal rainfall in most of the growing region this past month.
Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating today, “The wheat (futures) market is finding technical support of large fund short position with all contracts trading above the 50-day moving averages. Concerns about dry and cold conditions in Russia winter what regions and dry conditions in Australia are seen mildly supportive for the wheat’s.”
The trend for wheat futures has newly emerged as up. I am only interested in taking the “long” signals at this points and expect this trend to last into the end of the year, or beginning of the next.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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