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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Feeder Cattle & NASDAQ Index (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, CBT Wheat, Gold and Soymeal (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Surging Crop Supply Extends Wheat Futures Lows
With the outlook global wheat production will reach a new record level, wheat futures continued their slide to new lows not seen in four years. Wheat futures are down another .09c from yesterday’s close as of this writing.
The good news is the global grain-glut with increasing supplies is helping to lower global food prices, as seen in the United Nations’ food costs index also nearing a four-year low. The USDA forecasts world wheat output to increase to nearly 720M metric tons for the forthcoming 2014-15 season.
Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation, “With harvest underway in grains, expect record breaking yields that may surpass all previous expectations.”
The trend for wheat futures is in a continuing decent lower. We are short wheat futures upon the opening bell, however I do expect some type of relief rally in the not so distant future.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Corn Futures Lower as Farmers Begin Biggest US Harvest…Ever
Corn futures retreated from yesterday’s highs today as good weather conditions help farmers harvest a corn crop that is said to be the biggest ever. Corn futures only finished the day a mere .02½c lower, but still just above its $3.35c multi-year lows.
The Maryland based “Commodity Weather Group” claims there are “no major harvest issues” for corn including any freeze threat through the first week of next month. The USDA also said last week this year’s harvest will yield almost 3.5% more bushels than last year. Corn futures have responded by dropping a little more than 19% so far this year.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current corn futures situation, “Weather and yield prospects continue to favor the bears as harvest is underway. Questions about Chinese demand for U.S. corn continue to hang over the market.” Craney adds, “However, (corn futures) traders are more focused on the prospect for higher than expected yields during harvest.”
Corn futures trend is down with no “bottom formation” yet in sight. I am patiently awaiting some type of bounce in corn futures to reset a short position with lower-risk.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Waning Shipments Before US Harvest Lowers Soybean Futures
Let it be known soybean orders for the five important exporting country’s “dropped significantly” in August before global inventories become replenished when the US begins its soybean harvest in the next few weeks, according to the German-based industry group, “Oil World.” Soybean futures are down today .08c from yesterday’s close as of this writing.
Oil World went on to say soybean exports from those five major countries still rose for the 2013-2014 marketing year that ended last month, some countries 20% more than the prior year. However, combined exports from the US, and four South American countries fell significantly last month to a “multi-month low” and 24% less that in August 2013.
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation, “As we head into the middle of September new crop soybean supplies will likely begin to increase noticeably. This follows a period were North American shipments were depressed and South American soybean supplies and exports had been declining due to season pressure.“
The trend for soybeans futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. We are short soymeal and soybean oil with new lows made in soybean meal futures just today.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Feeder Cattle
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen and Crude Oil, Natural Gas, CBT Wheat & Gold (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Extend to 4-Yr Lows on Output Outlook
Wheat futures have dropped to prices not seen since 2010 on the outlook rising global production will only add to mounting wheat inventories and stockpiles. Wheat futures accelerated with the trend after today’s USDA Crop Production was released – confirming what traders already expected.
Wheat futures in Chicago have already dropped 15% before todays data on the view of record global production. The UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization’s prediction is about 3M metric tons more than the Int’l Grains Council’s world output view as prospects continue to improve for wheat crops in China, the European continent, and Russia.
“These grains just keep falling with excellent crop conditions and plenty of inventory and stockpiles. This mornings report confirms this,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation.
Wheat futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. I had to offset my short wheat futures positions before the report was released due to my policy of “not holding” positions through the report.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Global Surplus Takes Sugar Futures to 2010 Lows
Sugar futures continue to find new lows as the world’s biggest sugar producer has stepped-up output of the product. Sugar futures are at prices not seen since 2010 now that Brazil has effectively expanded the global “glut” of sugar production.
Brazilian sugar industry group “Unica” claimed yesterday in a report their biggest sugar growing region in the country’s center-south is already producing 4.4% more sugar than this same time last year. Sugar futures have already declined over 27% from this year’s high in March.
“Even though the (sugar) harvest in Brazil is starting to slow down, production for this season is still well outpacing demand. Additionally this is the fourth consecutive season of oversupply of sugar,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current sugar futures situation.
The technical trend for sugar futures remains down with no bottom yet in sight. We are short sugar futures since last week on this entire last leg down.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Commodity Futures Markets at Lowest Level Since January
With the US Dollar advancing on the outlook for the Federal Reserve to increase interest-rates next year, the commodity futures markets have plummeted to their lowest levels since the very beginning of the year. Markets that have sent the commodity index lower include nickel, Brent crude oil, and corn (of all markets).
In the meantime, the US Dollar has climbed to a 14-month against 10 other high-profile currencies it is compared against, as reports later this week are expected to show retail sales improving and jobless claims dropping. Later next week Federal Reserve policy makers meet to discuss the dollar’s gain and its effect on domestic commodity prices rising compared to other currencies.
Most of our commodity futures markets we trade are in choppy to down-trending trends. However, choppy commodity futures markets lead to breakouts in one direction, or another, and that is what I am concentrating on catching at this slow time.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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