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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Copper & Feeder Cattle
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, Lean Hogs, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound and Crude Oil & Japanese Yen (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Backtrack on Ukraine Outlook Not Disrupting Trade
Wheat futures have fallen after six-consecutive trading sessions higher – the longest rally in over three months – on the outlook that escalating tensions between the US & Russia regarding the Ukraine situation won’t interfere with the global grain trade. Wheat futures are down .05c per bushel from yesterday’s close as of this writing.
Following the Western countries sanctions on Russia because of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia has banned food imports from mostly North America, the European Union, Australia & Norway. Since the week ended July 31st, US wheat sales have decreased by 19% from the same time last year – according to the USDA.
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, “Unless there is renewed tensions in the Ukraine, demand for wheat (futures) is not expected to increase. If lower prices can’t cure lower demand then it’s hard to understand how higher prices would trigger higher demand.”
The trend for wheat futures is at a crossroads – technically “down” but a breakout above yesterday’s highs will change all that in my studies and work. Even if wheat futures do indeed trade higher, I see at least one more trade to the short side to test last week’s contract lows.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
With Dollar Gain, Sets-up Copper Futures Fall
(From Tuesday…Commentary to resume tomorrow.) Copper futures have retreated yet again today and are poised for their biggest drop in eight weeks as the strengthening US greenback may be waning the appeal of metals as an alternative investment. Copper futures are down $3.95 per pound as of this writing.
A highly recognized Industrial Metals Index has fallen three out of the last four business days after four consecutive monthly gains through last month on signs of improving domestic manufacturing demand. A spot dollar index, however, has reached a five-month high with domestic service industries expanding in July at reportedly their fastest pace since December 2005.
“With global markets nervous it might keep copper (futures) prices lower,” stated Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current copper futures situation.
Copper futures trend is technically still up, but with clear signs of possibly “topping” at these levels. Two consecutive lows below the $317.20 level could change the trend to down – at a crossroads.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Copper
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Euro-currency, Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, Lean Hogs, Kansas Wheat, Natural Gas, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Oil, Soymeal & British Pound (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Corn Futures Heading for Biggest Monthly Decline in Three Years
Corn futures are testing their recent low in prices and are poised to realize their biggest monthly price drop in nearly three years. Corn futures expectations is that supplies will be ample enough adding to the outlook of a record “bumper crop” for the US this year.
The USDA’s forecast of nearly 14B bushels of corn this year – the second highest ever – is looking to become reality with domestic corn crops said to be maturing in mostly good condition. Weather forecasters also call for increased precipitation for August following this months dryness that set in late in the month.
“Weather in the Midwest has been near ideal for farmers and with more rain on the way corn prices have had their steepest monthly decline in nearly 3 years,” statedDevin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his insight regarding the current corn futures situation. Brady added, “The risk premium that sent (corn futures) prices higher during the first half of the year has been erased as farmers anticipate a bumper crop.”
The trend in corn futures remains down, albeit slowing down at these current price levels. I am looking for some type of temporary spike higher before resetting “short” another corn futures position.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybeans Futures Reverse Coarse on Overview US Dryness Won’t Be Severe
Soybean futures reversed course today, after rallying form last week, on the outlook that dryer weather in the forecast won’t be bad enough to erode yields. Soybean futures are down .12c today while earlier erasing all of yesterday’s pit-session gains.
Forecasts for the Midwest call for limited rainfall in the forthcoming week with temperatures cool enough to minimize crop stress and keeping more moisture in the soil. The USDA adds that 71% US soybean crops are in “good to excellent” shape and in the best condition for this time of the year since 1994.
“Soybeans rallied yesterday because of renewed buying interest from China. However, rains in the forecast have replaced the concerns for dryness and given back the previous day’s gains,” stated Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current soybean futures situation.
The trend for soybean futures remains down despite the recent rally. Soybean futures may be in the initial process of testing last week’s low and we are short this market from early in today’s session.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Feeder Cattle, Silver and Copper (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Euro-currency, Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, Lean Hogs, Kansas Wheat, Natural Gas, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Oil & Soymeal
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Bumper Crop in India Sets Back Cotton Futures
Cotton futures have tanked since the news reported India’s biggest cotton trader stated his nation’s cotton production is set to reach an all-time high. India’s farmers evidentially are switching from soybeans & peanuts to cotton with the delays in monsoon rains.
According to the Chairman of Cotton Corporation of India, that nation’s cotton harvest is expected to expand little more than 2.5% to 40M bales in the fiscal year starting October 1st. This expected bumper crop in India may curb any significant rally in cotton prices that have already fallen 20% this year.
“With the time window for sowing soybeans and peanuts behind the Indian farmers, cotton seems to be the last resort, and will add to already committed acreage,” stated Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current cotton futures situation.
Cotton futures trend is down despite the lengthy sideways action we endured these past two weeks. We are short cotton futures since early this morning and this market continues to make new lows.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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