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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Feeder Cattle, Soymeal & Crude Oil (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: (None this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Sugar Futures Lower as Kerry Mends US-Mexico Ties for Trade
Sugar futures finished “down” for a fifth day in a row as US Secretary of State Kerry is in Mexico to solidify details for a trading pact throughout the Pacific-Rim. There continues to be an underlying rift between Mexico & the US over sugar (and “steel” amongst other things) which is straining ties between our two countries.
If Secretary of State Kerry is successful in finding common ground in bolstering trade and security, not only with Mexico, but with 10 other Pacific-Rim nations, this will be an economic alliance that is the largest in history. Sugar futures have been in an overall down-trend since late last year in part because Mexico sugar producers are being accused of flooding the sugar market with their product at the US’s expense.
The technical trend for sugar futures is down with a possible bottom in sight. If sugar futures can retain the $0.17 cent support level, and trade higher from here, then this market will be at a crossroad.\
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Longest Slump in Six Months for Corn Futures
Corn futures have extended their losses for five straight sessions on the outlook of beneficial weather will boost our domestic crops. The US is the biggest producer of corn in the world, and this biggest slump in corn futures prices since November is not helping our farmers.
A prominent weather forecaster predicts favorable warm, dry weather this coming week will aid corn seeding in the central northerly growing region from North Dakota to Ohio. As of this past weekend, the USDA claims corn plantings to be 73% completed – 8% more than last year at this time.
“The (USDA) Crop Progress report showed a jump in corn plantings to bring it into line with the same time last year. With dry and warm temperatures expected from now until Monday, the next report may see a jump over the five year average,” saidLaura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.
Corn futures trend is now down on the daily charts. I am patiently awaiting some sort of temporary spike, or sideways action, in prices to go short corn futures. With the USDA’s forecast of this years corn harvest rising to a record, I don’t want to miss any more downward action than I have to, but I want to feel good about my risk.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybeans Futures Rising on Export Demand
Soybean futures worked its way to higher prices not seen in over two weeks on signs of increasing demand for US soybeans. Late in the trading session, however, soybean futures couldn’t hold its gains and appears as if it will close “down” for the day.
Today the USDA stated soybeans inspected for export rose 64% in the week ended last Thursday compared with a year earlier. Shipments of soybeans since last September have also climbed 22%, but soybean meal since last October has only risen almost 5% above last year’s pace.
“This morning’s rally in soybean (futures) gained support from the larger than expected soybean inspections. Supplies should remain tight a for some time since the expected 90 million bushels of U.S. soybean imports has yet to materialize,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current soybean futures situation.
The trend for soybean futures is technically “up,” however appears to be at some sort of crossroad. I will proceed with trades to the long side of soybean futures as long as the bullish scenario remains intact.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Wheat, Soybeans and Feeder Cattle & Soymeal (Both new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: (None this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
US Jobless Claims Fall With Gold Futures
Gold futures reversed course after two big “up-days” earlier this week. It’s the biggest drop in gold prices in a week as waning jobless claims hint at a strengthening economy and a set-back for gold (futures) demand as a safe-haven for assets.
Gold bullion “hard-assets” through derivatives have reached their lowest point this week since 2009 with no help of the Federal Reserve cutting stimulus recently causing investors to lose faith in the intangible value of the precious metal. Gold futures plummeted 28% last year amid the backdrop of both a stronger economy and stock market.
“With the U.S. economy growing at an anemic pace and the Federal Reserve pulling back on stimulus, gold has lost some of its shine in the market place. Asset flows in the short-term appear to be going toward treasuries as investors wait for more details on the health of both the U.S. economy and global economy,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current gold futures situation.
Gold futures trend is down, albeit more “sideways” for the past couple of months. I am trying to get short gold futures at this time with the trend and seasonal tendency.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Extend Losses On Global Outlook
Wheat futures extended their losses from late last week as the consensus of sufficient global supplies gains momentum. Wheat futures are down .20c today extending the biggest slump in wheat prices in nearly five months.
The USDA estimates global wheat inventories to rise by one-half percent by June of next year (from last Friday’s USDA Crop Production report). USDA data also showed the premium that exporters paid for the soft-red winter wheat variety at terminals near New Orleans have been the lowest in almost eight months.
“The wheat market is due for a correction. The market rallied too high. When everyone runs for the exits you see massive liquidation,” said Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current wheat futures situation. Moreno adds, “In my opinion, (wheat futures) are probably going to go even lower.”
The trend for wheat futures is still technically up (in my study), and I am still looking to take long positions. If wheat futures continue to trade at these lower levels through the end of the week, I may have to reverse my thinking and trading direction.
China Factory Slowdown Concern’s Copper Futures
Copper futures are taking a break after four up-closes on the outlook of China’s factory output slowdown and how it may affect demand there. China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper at this point in history.
China’s statistics bureau showed industrial production in April rose at a slower pace than the month earlier – trailing analysts forecasts. China reportedly accounts for more than 40% of the world’s copper demand alone.
“Today’s report showing industrial production slowing in China have put the bulls on their heels while sending copper (futures) lower,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, regarding the current copper futures situation.
Copper futures trend remains up. With volatility and margin rates rather high at this time, I have to be selective with copper futures trades.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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