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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Soybean Futures Lower With Expanding Plantings
Soybean futures retreated today after such a large “up” day yesterday once forecasters reported the possibility of soybean production climbing to a record next season. Farmers, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, are expanding soybean planting and soybean futures are predictably responding.
The Hamberg, Germany based research group claims world soybean production will be just over 6% higher than the prior marketing year. They also stated the total worldwide soybean harvested area can reach an all-time high 4% more than one year ago.
Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean futures situation, “The soybean (futures) markets are separated into old crop and new crop. The tight supplies of old crop soybeans due to aggressive exports providing support while index funds rolling out of the July contracts is providing some resistance.” Moreno adds, “With the improving weather we are seeing and soybean planting at 78% complete (they were expecting 75%) look for beans to move lower.”
The technical trend for soybean futures remains up, but I stopped myself out of the long position earlier this morning because of the abrupt reversal. I am still bullish soybean futures until a more clear picture of this market unfolds.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Soymeal and Japanese-Yen & 10yr. T-Notes (Both new this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Cotton & Euro-currency (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Demand Concern Outlook Sinks Copper Futures
After reaching 11-week highs, copper futures retreated on the outlook of waning economic growth in both China & the US – the world’s biggest consumers of the metal. For the year, copper futures is down 6.4% amid the reality of slowing economies.
Our government figures showed today US GDP falling at an annualized rate of 1% in the first quarter – more than some economists estimated. In the next week, a purchasing managers index is expected to slower growth than previously estimated in China.
Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, had this to say regarding the current copper futures situation, “China has been a real driver in commodity prices and even the hint of a slowdown in manufacturing, like we saw in April’s PMI, could put some pressure on copper (futures) going forward.” Brady added, “Tepid growth in the US would do little to offset any real demand destruction from China.”
Copper futures trend is clearly “up” and pulling-back in what looks like a normal correction. I am looking for a lower-risk way into the copper futures market on this current dip.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures May Find Support with El Nino
Wheat futures may be finding much needed support as the tropical storm phenomena “El Nino” is looming for Australia’s wheat fields. The country “down under” is standing-by for a drier winter in the wheat growing regions in the east & south.
Australia’s national meteorology center predicts a 60% chance of “below-average” rainfall between June & August – their winter months – where they need it most for their wheat crops. The USDA ranks Australia as the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter, but is set to take a back-seat to Russia as they boost their shipments of wheat.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current wheat futures situation, “Wheat futures saw recent drawdowns as rainfall has boosted crop forecasts across Russia and the southern U.S., however this may not be the case with the crop forecasts coming out of Australia. The Australian growing regions may experience lower rainfall due to a possible El Nino effect.” Levy added, “Concern over the El Nino possibility may begin to lend support to the wheat futures prices.”
The trend for wheat futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. We were just stopped out of our wheat futures “short” position today and am looking to reset short again soon.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Ukraine Outlook Sends Gold Futures Lower
Gold futures has plummeted today further minimizing the precious metal’s appeal as a “safe-haven” for investors. A combination of events is reportedly responsible for the two-week low in gold futures.
First, the Ukraine’s president-elect, whom is said to be pro-Russian, has eased tensions with his victory so it is perceived to be unnecessary for the EU and the US to impose tougher restrictions against Russia. Earlier this year, gold futures gained almost 7% because of the uncertainty creating this demand. Finally, the strength of the US Dollar by the monetary policy maker’s outlook of non-inflation has also helped to dampen any “gold rush.”
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current gold futures situation,“The current sell off in gold (futures) prices has been fueled not only by easing tensions in the Ukraine, but also in the strengthening of the US Dollar.”
Gold futures trend remains down with no bottom yet in sight. With gold futures making lower lows today, the next support level (in my studies) is right near where my target price is working.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Feeder Cattle, Soymeal & Crude Oil (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: (None this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Sugar Futures Lower as Kerry Mends US-Mexico Ties for Trade
Sugar futures finished “down” for a fifth day in a row as US Secretary of State Kerry is in Mexico to solidify details for a trading pact throughout the Pacific-Rim. There continues to be an underlying rift between Mexico & the US over sugar (and “steel” amongst other things) which is straining ties between our two countries.
If Secretary of State Kerry is successful in finding common ground in bolstering trade and security, not only with Mexico, but with 10 other Pacific-Rim nations, this will be an economic alliance that is the largest in history. Sugar futures have been in an overall down-trend since late last year in part because Mexico sugar producers are being accused of flooding the sugar market with their product at the US’s expense.
The technical trend for sugar futures is down with a possible bottom in sight. If sugar futures can retain the $0.17 cent support level, and trade higher from here, then this market will be at a crossroad.\
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Longest Slump in Six Months for Corn Futures
Corn futures have extended their losses for five straight sessions on the outlook of beneficial weather will boost our domestic crops. The US is the biggest producer of corn in the world, and this biggest slump in corn futures prices since November is not helping our farmers.
A prominent weather forecaster predicts favorable warm, dry weather this coming week will aid corn seeding in the central northerly growing region from North Dakota to Ohio. As of this past weekend, the USDA claims corn plantings to be 73% completed – 8% more than last year at this time.
“The (USDA) Crop Progress report showed a jump in corn plantings to bring it into line with the same time last year. With dry and warm temperatures expected from now until Monday, the next report may see a jump over the five year average,” saidLaura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.
Corn futures trend is now down on the daily charts. I am patiently awaiting some sort of temporary spike, or sideways action, in prices to go short corn futures. With the USDA’s forecast of this years corn harvest rising to a record, I don’t want to miss any more downward action than I have to, but I want to feel good about my risk.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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