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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Soybean Futures Rebound on Signs of Tight Domestic Supplies
Soybean futures have been lifted from a recent pull-back in prices in the last week amid signs of contracting US soybean stockpiles. Soybean futures are up over 0.15 cents per bushel (as of this writing) following a near 0.30 cent rise yesterday.
He’s the good news for US soybean farmers: industry data revealed earlier this week shows demand from domestic soybean processors rose almost 4% in February compared to the same time last year. Plus, soybean exporters have sold more of their product since the marketing fiscal year began in September than the USDA projected for the full season.
Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean futures situation, “Soybean (futures) continue to attract capital on the buy side as expectations of tightening of US stocks offer support.”
The trend for soybean futures remain UP, the market tests its March 7th recent highs. We are long soybean futures, but I have tightened the protective sell stop earlier this morning.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Drought Conditions in Asian Growing Areas Bullish for Soybean Oil
Soybean oil may be in for a boost in price very soon. The world’s top three palm oil producers in SE Asia claim “prices have the potential to rise” because of drought conditions in the growing areas of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
The Hamburg, Germany research group “Oil World” stated in their report dry weather for the past two months has created moisture shortages for some plantings and water rationing. They also say continue dryness in the next two weeks may prompt “an even more bullish supply scenario” for the forthcoming year.
Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean oil futures situation, “Oil share is getting hit again. The tightness in soybeans and soybean meal is leaking into the soybean oil.” Moreno added, “Expect soybean oil to move higher.”
Soybean oil’s trend is up despite the pull-back in price since the March 7th high. I am looking for buy signals in soybean oil as of this writing.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Coffee, Soymeal, Gold, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Soybeans, Cotton, Feeder Cattle, S&P 500 Index, CBT Wheat and Kansas Wheat (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Copper (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Extend Advance on Ukraine Unrest Outlook
March 13, 2014: Earlier today wheat futures had extended their gains since Tuesday on the outlook of tensions in the Ukraine not letting up and the possibility of less exports. This possibility is generally bullish for wheat futures as potential buyers may come to US markets for wheat (and other grain).
The Ukraine is a competitor when it comes to grain exports – the six-largest wheat shipper in the world – and even amidst months of unrest in that region, so far grain exports have been uninterrupted and reportedly planting is ahead of schedule.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current wheat futures situation,“Wheat prices continue to remain strong after a bounce off their lows in January. The situation in Crimea will be watched closely as this could result in export disruptions.” Craney adds, “Any corrective pullback should be well supported in the short-term.”
The trend for wheat futures is up at a time of year when seasonally they should be topping out. When I saw wheat futures unable to hold it’s gains earlier this morning, I had to bail on the positions.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
China Demand Outlook Dampens Soybean Futures
March 12, 2014: It has all been downhill for soybean futures following Monday’s USDA Crop Production report – soybeans down for a third day. Soybean futures have had a spectacular run higher since early February, but the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans – China – is being perceived as turning cold to paying a premium.
China has already imported nearly 5M metric tons of soybeans last month (which is nearly 2M tons more than the same time last year), but the USDA is reporting they cancelled buying 245,000 tons last week. Are soybean futures retreating with the assumption China is the main buyer of our soybeans…?
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean futures situation, “Soybean futures finished lower again in today’s trading session as China is expected to cancel more purchases of U.S. beans in favor of Brazil’s crop.” Levy added, “Additional pressure on the soybean futures comes from U.S. growers who have been releasing a large amount of their soybeans in storage to take advantage of the higher grain price.”
Soybeans futures trend remains up despite this three-day set-back. Normally soybean futures do not begin such a rally until late this month/early April, so they may either consolidate or we may be looking at a potentially bigger move to come into early summer.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
US Corn & Soybean Exports Increase
The USDA has reported increasing corn and soybean sales causing futures prices to rise. For the last four months of 2009, soybean exports increased a whopping 55% and corn a respectable 19% from a year earlier – according to the USDA yesterday.
What is causing this grain demand…? Well, let’s start with more mouths to feed around the world, animal feed, and – thanks to the global warming hoax – the ingenious idea to make fuel from crops has caused corn and soybean futures to double in price just this past decade.
Greg Grow, director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services in Chicago, agrees with recent futures price rise by stating, “Export sales continue to be very good…demand is supporting prices.”
Corn is the US’s biggest cash crop (valued at over $47B in 2008), and soybeans are a distant second in 2008 with the US crop valued over $27B. I noticed this yesterday “over the wire”…too important to ignore. Happy New Year to you all!
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