Wheat futures have retreated from five-week highs after the USDA reported all domestic winter-wheat crop conditions improving last week. Wheat futures are down more than .10 cents per bushel today (as of this writing) and down as much as .15 cents from their highs yesterday at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The USDA revealed Oklahoma winter-wheat rated 44% good to excellent and Texas winter-wheat at 55% – both improving by 4% from the previous week. In Kansas (the country’s top producing wheat state), only 41% of the wheat crop was rated good excellent which is unchanged from the previous week.
Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, shared his fundamental view regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, “The winter wheat conditions may have improved overall, but is that amount enough…?” Evans adds, “Wheat futures, after-all, are in a new up-trend at normally the wrong time of the year.”
The trend for wheat futures has emerged up (surprisingly) only last week. The seasonal tendency is for wheat futures to be trending in the opposite direction (“down”) from February through July, so I am a bit skeptical about what has unfolding, but will trade accordingly.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.