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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Final Look at 2014/15 Crop by USDA a Mixed-Bag for Grain Futures
Grain futures were anticipating the USDA’s final look at the 2014/15 crop, but the actual data was mixed. Grain futures ended lower across the board with soybeans down nearly .17c, wheat down .075, and corn down a penny per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The final ending stocks saw an increase for corn by 50M bushels, a 15M decrease for soybeans, and a seven-million bushel decrease for wheat. The world production saw only a negligible increase in production for all three.
“Today’s grain market report was really no surprise, but rather a reflection of the numbers released last week,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current grain futures situation. Plotkin added, “Now that the 2014/15 crop season numbers are in, farmers can now evaluate how to continue for the forthcoming crop season.”
The soy-product futures are still in down-trends, but corn and wheat are still holding on to fragile technical up-trends (in my work). Prices going forward from here should be more in line with weather fluctuations rather than supply since supply from old crop is now a definite known variable.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Cattle Futures Strengthening but Seasonal Tendency Coming Into Play
Cattle futures are coming off of fresh strength from last month and cattle feedlot managers may be able to squeeze out a few more bucks from the packers because of it. Feeder cattle futures are however, down today about 90 points and are trading at nearly $2.14 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Cattle futures peaked late last year at the $2.32 level but have been making a run back to these highs since basing in February at the $1.90 support level. Cattle producers are looking to make the most they can before the cattle marketing season begins to seasonally increase.
“Even though feeders have been strong this past month, it doesn’t mean the average cattle rancher is reaping the full potential profit,” said Jeff Evans, Vice-President of the Managed Accounts Division for RMB Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current cattle futures situation. Evans added, “Cattle coming off feed recently and animals being harvested in the next few weeks are feeders that were purchased at record prices, so on a cash-to-cash basis the rancher needs prices to remain high to realize a respectable profit.”
Cattle futures trend is up (we trade “feeder” cattle” – animals preparing for feedlot use. The cattle futures market is still strong, but as mentioned above the seasonal tendency for beef prices is to decline into the mid-June time frame is fast approaching.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
With Only 2% Planted, Cotton Futures Soar
Cotton futures have blasted-off these past three trading sessions on the outlook of cotton planting being behind schedule. Cotton futures are up 125 points to .6659 (a pound) at this time of writing on the InterContinental Exchange – its highest prices since September.
Of the 15 cotton producing states from last year, only “three” are reporting any planting representing 2% of cotton planted as of yet when the five-year average at this time should be 6%. California’s planting lag is the most significant with only 10% planted for the state when 28% was planted this time last year, but then again Texas is only at “1%” planted when 9% was in last April. It’s safe to say the water limitations may be to blame in both those state’s case.
“Where water flows, crops grow,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her fundamental analysis regarding the current cotton futures situation. Levy added, “If water can’t be dedicated to the crop, then cotton futures may be only in the beginning stages of its uptrend.”
The trend for cotton futures is up as of today. I will be looking for some type of pull-back in cotton futures to get on-board this market.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Lean Hogs, Coffee, Crude Oil, Euro-FX, Sugar, Soymeal, Japanese Yen, Soy Oil & Natural Gas (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Natural Gas Futures Finding Support with Less Supply in Storage
Natural gas futures found support during trading Thursday when data showed domestic natural gas supplies falling more than expected last week. Natural gas futures for May delivery ended the day at $2.69 per BTU, up 94 points at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In the week ending March 27th, the US Energy Information Administration reported natural gas in domestic storage declined by 18B cubic feet – when only a decline of 10B was “expected.” In the week prior it was reported a 12B cubic foot rise, and a year earlier at this time supplies fell by 71B cubic feet.
“Supplies compounded with a milder winter may keep natural gas prices depressed until later this year,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current natural gas futures situation. Brady added, “This time of year usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas and I can’t imagine any scenario in the near-term to change the fundamental picture.”
Natural gas futures trend is down with no clear bottom yet in sight. This report is not necessarily for natural gas futures traders, but users of the product in our everyday lives – great news here for the consumer!
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Private Sector Data Launches Gold Futures
Gold futures soared today over the $1,200 threshold just after the “soft” non-farm payrolls were released on the outlook of lower employment figures to be released on Friday. Gold futures closed $25 per ounce higher on the day at New York’s Commodity Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The ADP National Employment Report released today showed the private sector adding 189,000 jobs last month which falls short of the 225,000 expectation of other expert economists forecasts. What’s significant about this preliminary forecast is that it marks the lowest increase in seasonally-adjusted private employment since January of last year.
“With this decline centered in larger companies with a 1,000 or more employees, it speaks volumes for the anticipated economic recovery,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current gold futures situation. Medina added, “Today’s acceleration of the new (gold futures) uptrend may be confirmed in Friday’s US Department of Labor’s official release. Look out gold in either direction…”
The trend for gold futures is up as of late last month – so the gold rush is on (so to speak). We are currently long gold futures with both a stop and target price in place.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Soybean Futures Hit New Low with Estimated Record Plantings
Soybean futures tumbled to new lows after the long awaited USDA prospective plantings report was released. Soybean futures have since rebounded off of the lows and are currently “unchanged” for the day (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.
Here’s a brief summary of the prospective plantings report from 2014: Corn planted acreage DOWN 2%, along with all wheat acreage also DOWN 3%, and cotton acreage DOWN 13%. Soybean acreage, however, continues to climb…albeit only estimated UP 1% from last year, is a record high.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current soybean futures situation saying, “With record soybean inventories fresh on everybody’s mind, the record plantings can only speak of one thing, and that is demand.” Craney adds, “We’ll see how soybean futures unfolds from here…”
Soybean futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight – especially after making new lows after the report. Looking for a short soybean futures position when the dust settles in this market.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: None at this time.
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Lean Hogs, Coffee, Crude Oil, Gold, S&P 500 Index, Euro-FX, British Pound, Sugar, Soymeal, Japanese Yen & Soy Oil (New this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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