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Schad Commodity Blog & Commentary
This commentary is intended to provide unique insights with my 30+ years experience for the commodity crypto & futures markets we use in our everyday lives and is recognized, and has been selected, by Feedspot as one of the the Top 20 Futures Trading Blogs on the web. Schad Commodity views & opinion only. For additional commentary, and to assure you’re receiving the Schad Commodity Daily Report, be sure to connect on Facebook® & Twitter®.
From the desk of Brian Schad:
Natural Gas Futures Settling Before Inventory Report
Natural gas futures appear to be experiencing short-covering just before tomorrow’s weekly storage data release. Natural gas futures are up 32 points today, but .13c above last week’s contract low near $2.52 per British thermal unit at New York’s Mercantile Exchange.
Tomorrow’s storage report by the US Energy Information Administration is anticipated to show an additional 80B cubic feet of inventory for the week ending April 17th – which would be the most on record for the week. Natural gas supplies also rose by 45B cubic feet the week earlier in-line with the five-year average of an increase of 46B cubic feet for this time of year.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her fundamental analysis regarding the current natural gas futures situation by stating, “It’s hard to imagine a scenario that could rally this natural gas (futures) market one month into Spring.” Levy adds, “With natural gas storage topping 80% above year-ago levels, I wouldn’t be surprised to see natural gas (futures) continue the choppiness until production slows down.”
Natural gas futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. These low natural gas prices are a real plus for the consumer.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
US Planting Progress Sinks Corn Futures
Corn futures extended losses from yesterday once the USDA report revealed US plantings in the Mid-west happening at a rapid pace. July Corn Futures are currently down .06c (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The USDA actually stated yesterday as of Sunday approximately 9% of the corn crop was planted – 2% more than the prior week. This is to be compared with nearly 6% of the domestic corn crop being planted the same time last year.
Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, shared his fundamental analysis regarding the current corn futures situation by stating, “The pace of corn plantings has picked up as farmers have been taking advantage of the favorable weather.” Brady adds, “The corn plantings, however, are still lagging behind the five year average.”
The trend for corn futures is down while the market tests its recent lows, and last months low. The seasonal tendency is for corn futures to soon rally, but with glut stockpiles world-wide, we may have a counter-seasonal trend in the works.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Coffee, Euro-FX, Soymeal, Natural Gas, Sugar and Kansas Wheat & Soybeans (Both new this week.)
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Gold Futures Rally on US Data & Greek Concerns
Gold futures broke out above $1,200 late this week on the outlook of official US data indicating a possible interest-rate hike based on the strength of the economy. Then gold futures turned around for the day about $4 per ounce just under $1,198 per ounce at New York’s Commodity Exchange.
With the US dollar under pressure Wednesday after domestic industrial production showed to fall six-tenths of one percent (the largest drop since the summer of 2012, and twice as weak as economists had expected), the disappointing report rekindled speculation for the Federal Reserve Board to hold off hiking interest-rates anytime soon.
“Gold’s (futures) rebound can also be accredited with the uncertainty over Greece’s EU bailout negotiations…not to be overlooked,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current gold futures situation. Medina added, “The focus for gold traders is to see concrete economic reform or some other type of relief to alleviate the instability of her situation.”
Gold futures trend is technically up, however the market has been trading sideways for almost a month. Gold futures appear to be building a base for another breakout to the upside.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Chinese GDP Speculation Adds to Copper Futures Choppiness
Copper futures is once again in choppy trading with disappointing Chinese growth data prevailing the speculation that Beijing officials will have to do more to jumpstart their economy. Copper futures ended trading Wednesday at New York’s Commodity Exchange up almost .02c from the day before near $2.72 a pound.
The Chinese economy is said to have grown by 7% in the first quarter – which was forecasted – but down from an expansion rate of 7.3% from the prior quarter. This happens to be the slowest pace of growth for their country since the global financial crisis era in 2008.
“Copper traders need to see Chinese policy-makers doing more to elevate their flailing economy, and it needs to happen soon,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current copper futures situation. Craney added, “The overall economy may be growing – albeit slower – but their industrial production slowing down below expectations may be the tell-tail signs of what to expect.”
The trend for copper futures are at a crossroad. The up-moves in copper fail to have immediate follow through thrust which keep me on the sidelines.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Wheat Futures Extend Lows on Domestic Rainfall
Wheat futures extended its lows (after yesterday’s spiral) to prices not seen in four weeks after rain had been forecasted in key wheat growing states. Wheat futures ended the trading session near $4.95 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
Traders had been monitoring the precipitation models closely for this news and yesterday’s .24c plunge began the confirmation of this development. Also yesterday, the USDA confirmed the domestic winter wheat crop being rated at 42% “good to excellent” as of April 12th – down from 44% the week earlier, but much better than the “34%” rating this time last year.
“The unknown rainfall factor for wheat traders is revealing itself,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current wheat futures situation. Riordan added, “The wheat (futures) market had been on (what seemed) stand-by mode for a few weeks, but the seasonal tendency appears to be playing out.”
Wheat futures trend is at a crossroad – still technically up, but if the market takes out today’s low before trading up to the $5.18 level, that would create the means to be bearish. Wheat futures had been trading sideways for almost three months, but now a clearer picture should be unfolding.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Schad Commodity’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move
Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.
As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.
Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:
UP Trending Futures Markets: Russell 2000 Index & Cotton (New this week.)
DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Lean Hogs, Coffee, Euro-FX, Sugar, Soymeal, Natural Gas
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Final Look at 2014/15 Crop by USDA a Mixed-Bag for Grain Futures
Grain futures were anticipating the USDA’s final look at the 2014/15 crop, but the actual data was mixed. Grain futures ended lower across the board with soybeans down nearly .17c, wheat down .075, and corn down a penny per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The final ending stocks saw an increase for corn by 50M bushels, a 15M decrease for soybeans, and a seven-million bushel decrease for wheat. The world production saw only a negligible increase in production for all three.
“Today’s grain market report was really no surprise, but rather a reflection of the numbers released last week,” said Gerry Plotkin, a Senior Market Strategist for R.J. O’Brien in Chicago, sharing his fundamental analysis regarding the current grain futures situation. Plotkin added, “Now that the 2014/15 crop season numbers are in, farmers can now evaluate how to continue for the forthcoming crop season.”
The soy-product futures are still in down-trends, but corn and wheat are still holding on to fragile technical up-trends (in my work). Prices going forward from here should be more in line with weather fluctuations rather than supply since supply from old crop is now a definite known variable.
ALL COMMENTARY IS CONSIDERED OPINION & VIEWS FROM THE AUTHOR AND NOT A SOLICITATION OF ANY SECURITIES. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
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